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Criminals who have reoffended or broken probation restrictions are being re-released from prisons early on the government’s direction under new measures to ease overcrowding.
Justice sources say jails are hurtling towards another capacity crisis despite Labour’s ongoing early release scheme and attempts to shift more offenders into open prisons.
Last month, officials were instructed to trigger a new policy that aims to shorten the time prisoners spend in jail after being recalled following previous release. The Observer understands that more than 1,000 inmates are under consideration for the new scheme, and once it is fully implemented about 400 more offenders could be at large at any given time.
A probation officer has sounded the alarm over the process, which bypasses Parole Board evaluations of whether prisoners can be safely re-released and instead sees them freed by the justice secretary’s representatives.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it would cause the release of offenders who “cannot be safely managed in the community”.
“It’s putting pressure on probation staff to change their judgment and recommend the re-release of people who shouldn’t be freed,” he added.
“There are no exceptions for terror offenders, sexual offenders, domestic abuse, stalking … you could have people under investigation for new offences being re-released.” ”
Internal guidance seen by the Observer says that offenders are eligible if they are assessed as posing a “low risk of serious recidivism”, are not known to present a “high risk of serious harm” and are not under investigation for a “serious further offence”.
“Being charged and/or being investigated for a further offence does not exclude the prisoner [from the scheme],” the document says.
Prisoners serving life terms and extended or indeterminate sentences that are given to particularly dangerous offenders, are excluded from the scheme. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said a previous version of the policy had been used for between 1,000 and 1,600 re-releases a year until there was a steep drop from 2020 onwards.
It said the decline had contributed to an increasing number of people held in prison on recall, which stood at a record of almost 13,000 by the end of last year in England and Wales.
But a political source said the number of inmates re-released by the Conservative government became “anaemic” because the HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) unit responsible for making decisions on behalf of the justice secretary was “risk averse”.
The probation officer accused the government of drawing up the new scheme because it was “screwed” on prison capacity. “Early release isn’t making as much difference as they expected it to, and even if the sentencing review reports in the next few weeks, new legislation will take months,” he added. “They’re going to be screwed by about June, so we don’t know what they’re going to do next.”
The MoJ has announced that a new 1,500-capacity prison in Yorkshire, HMP Millsike, will be opened within weeks and that other jails were being expanded through construction of new houseblocks. Mark Fairhurst, chair of the Prison Officers’ Association, said the building programme would ease overcrowding if it runs to schedule but that an emergency contingency to hold prisoners in police cells was triggered as recently as last month in the north-east and north-west of England.
He warned that HMP Millsike in Full Sutton, near York, could only be populated at a rate of about 50 inmates a week to allow new staff and processes to safely “bed in”. “HMPPS has restarted its capacity gold [command group] because it’s getting dodgy again. If it keeps going the way it is, we’ll be full again by summer,” Fairhurst added.
A report released by the Public Accounts Committee on Friday said male prisons were “alarmingly full” and that the MoJ’s internal forecast predicts that they will run out of space again by early 2026 despite early release measures. The watchdog said that “completely unrealistic” prison expansion plans were running five years late and £4.2bn over budget, leaving the government “entirely reliant on uncertain future demand reduction measures” in the Gauke sentencing review.
The MoJ said the new policy was necessary because prisoners who could be safely managed outside of jail were spending too long waiting for Parole Board decisions. It said only inmates considered a low risk of serious offending were eligible and that probation officers would perform full checks and put management plans in place before approving re-releases.
An MoJ spokesperson added: “This change will return the recall system to operating as it did in the 2010s, with proper safeguards in place to keep the public safe. It will help ensure we have cells for the dangerous offenders that need to be in prison.”
