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Here’s some more historical evidence suggesting Atlético are right up against it tonight. They’ve won 13 and lost 12 of the European ties in which they’ve lost the first leg away, a narrow positive albeit one very much second best to Real’s record after winning their first leg at home: they’ve gone through in 49 of 62 ties. Atléti will however be buoyed by memories of last year, when they dispatched Internazionale on penalties in this round after losing the first leg in Milan. So let’s rule nothing out.
Quite a few rascals are one booking away from missing the first leg of the quarter-final should their team get through. Atlético have José María Giménez and Ángel Correa on the edge; Real’s substantially longer list features Luka Modrić, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Antonio Rüdiger, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick and Carlo Ancelotti himself.
Both teams make two changes to their starting XI after last week’s first leg at the Bernabéu. Atlético call up Conor Gallagher and Reinildo, Javi Galán and Samuel Lino dropping to the bench. Real recall Jude Bellingham and captain Luka Modrić, with Eduardo Camavinga and Brahim Díaz benched.
The teams
Atlético Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Gimenez, Lenglet, Reinildo, Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher, Griezmann, Alvarez.
Subs: Musso, Azpilicueta, Sorloth, Correa, Lemar, Samuel Dias, Molina, Riquelme, Witsel, Galan, Le Normand, Kostis.
Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy, Rodrygo, Tchouameni, Modric, Bellingham, Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.
Subs: Lunin, Gonzalez, Alaba, Camavinga, Guler, Endrick, Lucas, Garcia, Diaz, García, Ramon, Andres.
Referee: Szymon Marciniak (Poland).
Preamble
Atlético have been paired with their Madrid neighbours Real on five previous occasions in Europe’s most prestigious club competition. The 1959 semis. The 2014 final. The 2015 quarters. The 2016 final. The 2017 semis. Real have prevailed on each and every occasion. If history is any guide, Diego Simeone’s side may as well turn it in now.
Recent form won’t give them any succour either. Real won the first leg of this tie 2-1, despite an underwhelming performance at the Bernabéu last week. Then in La Liga at the weekend, Real won 2-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano thanks to first-half goals from Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior, while Atléti conceded in the 88th and 92nd minutes to go down 2-1 at Getafe.
There’s also the small matter of Real Madrid in the European Cup being Real Madrid in the European Cup. So it’s fair to say the cards are stacked against Atléti. But having said all of that, they’ve won two of the last three Derbi Madrileños at Estadio Metropolitano (and drawn the other) to an aggregate score of 8-4. And you can be damn sure a side of Simeone’s isn’t going to lie down and die wondering. So this could be a cracker, as the two Madrid giants battle for the right to face Arsenal (or PSV, but c’mon) in the quarter-finals. Kick-off is at 8pm GMT, 9pm local. Extra-time and penalties à la Anfield if required. It’s on!
