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The Bondi beach terror attack occurred amid an international spike of anti-western plots in December last year that appeared to be “inspired or instigated” by Islamic State, a new report has found, with many of them targeting holiday events such as Christmas markets.
In research published by the West Point Combating Terrorism Center in its publication Sentinel on Thursday, Australian counterterrorism experts Andrew Zammit and Levi West examined Islamic State’s strategic shifts and jihadi tactics in Australia prior to the alleged antisemitic terrorist attack.
They observed that the shooting at Bondi came amid a number of reports of foiled plots in December 2025 aimed at tourist targets internationally - including in Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, the US and Turkey.
Although those attacks are yet to be publicly assessed for central coordination by IS, the experts wrote, the plots occurred in the wake of consistent messaging by the terror group over the past two years for people to act on their own initiative but follow IS “methodology”.
Naveed Akram, 24, and his father, 50-year-old Sajid Akram, allegedly killed 15 people after opening fire at a Hanukah festival at Bondi beach on 14 December. Naveed Akram, who survived a shootout with police, has been charged with 59 offences, including 15 counts of murder and one count of committing a terrorist act that investigators allege may have been “inspired by” IS. His case remains ongoing and he has yet to enter a plea. Sajid Akram was shot and killed by police at the scene.
After a drop in 2022-2023 in attacks and plots against western countries, IS appeared to be undertaking more attacks and plots, the experts wrote. This followed attempts in its messaging to exploit Israel’s war in Gaza to mobilise attacks.
Zammit and West wrote that a greater proportion of plots were now targeting Jewish communities.
“Whether the Islamic State can maintain this renewed momentum is unclear and will doubtless be shaped by the trajectory of broader conflicts in the Middle East,” they wrote.
West and Zammit pointed to a speech in January 2024 released by IS spokesperson Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari which they said attempted to exploit Israel’s war in Gaza as a mobilisation tactic, and “sought to inspire sympathisers” to undertake attacks in their home countries. In the speech, IS denounced Hamas, Iran, the broader “axis of resistance”, as well as Israel and its western and Arab allies.
“It did not take long before these renewed efforts to inspire attacks in the West showed results,” they wrote. “One plot foiled in 2024 was a plan by two Islamic State supporters in the United Kingdom to conduct a mass shooting attack targeting a march against antisemitism and then travel to predominantly Jewish suburbs in north Manchester to murder more people.”
The experts also pointed to a September 2025 editorial calling for attacks on Jewish and Christian gatherings and an Islamic state supporter in the UK murdering two people at a Manchester synagogue in October.
“That same month, the two alleged Bondi perpetrators were training with firearms in remote NSW and recording a video for their planned attack,” they wrote.
“Analyzed in this context, what stands out is the extent that the Bondi attack correlates with the mobilisation themes and targeting advice promoted by the Islamic State since [the January 2024] speech.
“The attackers’ use of IEDs and firearms matched the speech’s call to ‘detonate explosives … [and] shoot them with bullets’.
“The consistency with which the targeting and tactics of the Bondi massacre were aligned with the Islamic State’s strategic logic is one of the attack’s most distinctive features compared to Australia’s earlier jihadi attacks. This consistency was not evident in several earlier incidents.”
Australian federal police have said there is no evidence yet that the Akrams were part of an a broader terrorist cell, or that they were directed by others.
