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Andy Burnham was told he could face the first revolt of his premiership as Labour MPs and climate experts condemned his apparent support for renewed drilling for oil and gas.
As the UK suffers through drought, fires and heatwaves, the prime minister gave the strongest indication yet on Friday he was minded to allow new drilling. His comments came just hours before the UN secretary-general warned “every new fossil fuel project” made heatwaves more dangerous.
Speaking at a community centre in Sheffield on Friday, Burnham repeated he would be “pragmatic” about oil and gas and that decisions on new drilling would be made “in due course”. But he added: “The question isn’t whether Britain will still be using oil and gas, the question is where does it come from.”
But many Labour MPs are increasingly worried about how support for expanded drilling will play with an electorate alarmed by the worst drought since 1976, soaring temperatures, wildfires, and climate-related food inflation and potential supply shortages.
They worry about losing more voters to the Greens: Zack Polanski’s party has stressed its opposition to further new licences for the North Sea, including the Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea and the Rosebank oilfield, west of Shetland. A decision to go ahead with the projects could trigger a new surge in defectors from Labour.
Rachael Maskell, the Labour MP for York Central, urged ministers to “keep carbon in the ground”, and watch the recent national emergency climate briefing. She added: “We’re seeing ice caps melting, seas warming up, hotter and hotter summers. This summer has been a warning that we have to go towards a sustainable future fast.”
Clive Lewis, the Labour MP for Norwich South, said there was “no legitimate reason” to press ahead with Jackdaw because it would make only a negligible difference to energy prices while sending the wrong signal internationally as Europe experienced record heat.
Lewis said approving the field would show Burnham was “not looking at the evidence” and that Labour risked adding “the stain of the climate crisis” to the party’s record, alongside Gaza.
Chris Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, said the UK must stay the course on decarbonisation. “Britain was the first country to industrialise and we have a duty to lead the world on net zero. We must be wary of the self-interest from which oil and gas companies are arguing, while the future of the planet is at stake.”
António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, did not single out the UK but gave a pointed warning on Friday, as the World Meteorological Organisation forecast hotter temperatures from August to October. “Every new fossil fuel project approved today makes tomorrow’s heatwaves more dangerous, and our world less secure,” Guterres said.
“Yet some governments still plan to produce more than twice as much fossil fuel in 2030 as the 1.5-degree limit allows. More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future.”
These warnings are hitting home with voters, several Labour MPs told the Guardian. One source said “there will be a revolt” if there is a chance for Labour MPs to vote on new licences for the North Sea.
Jackdaw and Rosebank are already in the planning system, and so could be argued to fall outside Labour’s manifesto promise to halt new licensing.
Despite these loopholes, the source said Burnham would need “support from the Conservatives and possibly the SNP rather than Labour unity” if it came to a vote, though Burnham is likely to try to avoid this by taking any decisions as an administrative measure after consultations on the fields conclude in mid-August.
Concerns over the negative impact of allowing new North Sea drilling extend across the Labour party, transcending factions and “tribes”. The Guardian has contacted or been told of concerned MPs including ministers and junior members of government, longstanding senior backbench MPs and committee figures and new MPs from the 2024 general election intake.
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A decision on Rosebank and Jackdaw will not come before the consultations end in mid-August, but the issue of whether further drilling could be allowed is likely to still be live when the budget comes on 28 October. In a video message on social media on Friday announcing the date, the chancellor, John Healey, said it would be “a budget that moves money and power out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain”, and that it would be “built on fiscal discipline”.
Part of the North Sea problem, according to some insiders, is that Burnham has assembled an older economic team with traditional views on industry, lacking knowledge of the climate and the rapidly changing dynamics of energy around the world.
Several influential economists told the Guardian that increased drilling would not help the UK economy. Mariana Mazzucato, who worked closely with Burnham on the lauded transformation of transport in Manchester, and who has been a key influence on his thinking, said: “Drilling the North Sea won’t help people across the UK struggling with their energy bills – most of the oil and gas from these new sites would be sold to the highest bidder on international markets.
“But the bigger picture is that green industrial strategy requires coherent and credible policy signals, to give investors confidence that the ‘clean energy superpower’ mission of Labour’s manifesto is still the direction of travel – which this drilling would undermine.”
Daniela Gabor, a professor of economics at SOAS, added: “It’s a terrible idea. The Burnham government is caving to the fossil lobby just as we experience some of the most intense heatwaves of recent times.”
Nicholas Stern, the economist, said new drilling would not alleviate pressure on energy bills and dismissed arguments that UK North Sea oil would lead to fewer carbon emissions than imports. “Extra output leads to extra use and more greenhouse gases. Further, and importantly, it would send a dangerous signal to the world,” he said.
However, some backbench MPs are also wary of the “massive bear trap”, as one described it, of allowing the climate to become a wedge issue for voters, as the Tories and Reform party are seeking to do. They are prepared to keep the peace by accepting the go-ahead for the Jackdaw gasfield, and potentially even the more controversial Rosebank oilfield, if a line can then be drawn against any further licences and if Burnham reaffirms his commitment to pushing forward urgently with net zero.
That is still in question. “[There is] growing concern among MPs that No 10 don’t realise this [new drilling] won’t help with bills at all and will cause political damage,” said another Labour backbencher. “A pragmatic approach can help us navigate this but the fundamentals need to be understood.”
