China ‘may exempt some US goods’ from tariffs; British retail sales beat forecasts – business live

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UK retail sales: what the experts say

City economists are encouraged that UK retail sales rose last month.

Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, credits the warmer weather, which boosted demand for clothing and DIY equipment:

“Sales continued to grow in March as the sunshine and warm weather encouraged people to spend more. Clothing and footwear performed well as consumers sought to take advantage of the good weather and prepare for summer.

The sunny weather also gave a boost to garden supplies and DIY, as people spent more time outside.

Sagar Shah, associate partner at McKinsey & Company, says consumers appear resilient:

“Mother’s Day and the spring sunshine saw retail sales rise by 0.4% in March. A positive surprise given that Easter hopped over into April this year – meaning March didn’t benefit from the holiday lift. It also marks the largest three-month rise in sales volumes since July 2021 – a sign there is some underlying resilience in shopper behaviour and the big discounts in the early part of the quarter brought back consumers.

Food sales saw a decline of 1.3%, likely due to people eating out and Easter not falling in March. But, we’d expect this to bounce back in April. Conversely, sales volumes in textiles, clothing, and shoes jumped by 3.7%, as people started getting ready for the spring.”

However…..there is a wrinkle, as these retail sales are seasonally adjusted to smooth out one-off factors, such as the timing of Easter.

Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, explains:

“March’s retail sales should be read with care as the ONS adjusts for the impact of Easter and school holidays falling in April this year. Continuing February’s improving trend, seasonally-adjusted retail sales rose again month-on-month, for the third consecutive month in volume terms.

Excluding petrol, retail sales volumes rose by a respectable 3.3%, which translated into 3.8% more pounds in the till compared with this time last year.

In the event, the sunniest March since records began particularly helped seasonal fashion retailers, which grew sales volumes on an annual basis for the first time in six months. In fact, all product categories showed positive sales growth, with only grocery retail showing a slight decline in volume terms, no doubt due to the later Easter holidays.

The oil price is inching higher today, amid hopes of a de-escalation in US-China trade conflicts.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen by 0.5% to $66.86 per barrel.

UK retailers post largest three-monthly rise in sales volumes since July 2021

Back in Britain, retail sales grew faster than expected last month – in an encouraging sign for growth this year.

Retail sales volumes across Great Britain rose by 0.4% in March, the Office for National Statistics reports, surprising economists who had expected a 0.4% fall.

Clothing and outdoor retailers reported that good weather boosted sales, the ONS reports. However, that was partly offset by falls in supermarket sales.

March’s growth follows a rise of 0.7% in February (revised down from a first estimate of 1.0%).

The broader picture is that retail sales volumes grew by 1.6% rise in the first three months of 2025, comped with October-December 2024.

That’s the largest three-monthly rise since July 2021, suggesting consumer spending is holding up quite well this year.

FT: Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China

The US-China trade conflict is forcing companies to rethink their supply chains.

Apple, for example, is reportedly pivoting away from China, which would be a major change to its supply chain.

The Financial Times reports this morning that Apple plans to shift the assembly of all US-sold iPhones to India by as soon as the end of 2026. That would mean doubling the iPhone output in India.

The FT explains:

Apple has in recent years been steadily building capacity in India with contract manufacturers Tata Electronics and Foxconn, though it still assembles most of its smartphones in China.

iPhone assembly is the last step in the production process, bringing together hundreds of components for which Apple is still heavily reliant on Chinese suppliers.

Markets cheered by hopes of US-China de-escalation

Stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region are higher today, following those reports that China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports,

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has rallied by 1%, as has South Korea’s KOSPI.

Japan’s Nikkei index has jumped by 1.8%, while China’s CSI 300 share index is up a more modest 0.2%.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, reports that signs of de-escalation of trade tensions are lifting optimism.

Yesterday allowed global risk investors to take a deeper breath. Dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) members, and de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China allowed a further recovery in global equities.

Optimism was backed today by the Chinese announcement that it is considering easing tariffs on some US imports, further signalling de-escalation of trade tensions and supporting earlier comments from the Trump administration that triple-digit tariffs could come ‘substantially’ down.

Introduction: China 'considering exempting some goods from US tariffs'

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Hope is swirling this morning that China might relax some of the tariffs it has imposed on US goods as part of Donald Trump’s trade wars.

With the economic costs of the tit-for-tat trade war hurting Chinese companies, Beijing appears to be seeking to mitigate the economic fallout from the conflict.

According to Bloomberg, this means China’s government is considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports – a sign that policymakers are worried about the damage caused by its trade war with Washington.

Bloomberg say:

Authorities are considering removing the additional levies for medical equipment and some industrial chemicals like ethane, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

Officials are also discussing waiving the tariff for plane leases, the people said. Like many airlines, Chinese carriers don’t own all of their aircraft and pay leasing fees to third-party companies to use some jets — payments that would have become financially ruinous with the additional tariff.

This potential easing in the US-China trade conflict comes after Donald Trump revealed yesterday that the world’s two largest economies had held talks to help resolve the trade war.

The US president told reporters:

“We may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China.”

Reuters is also reporting that China is considering exempting some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible.

A Ministry of Commerce taskforce is collecting lists of items that could be exempted from tariffs and is asking companies to submit their own requests, Reuters adds, citing a source.

Signs of de-escalation in the trade war will cheer investors, after a bruising few weeks since Trump announced his tariffs on trading partners.

It could also reassure politicians and central bankers around the world, who fear the consequences of a slowdown in world trade.

As the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, warned on Thursday, the UK economy faces a “growth shock” as a result of Trump’s trade policies.

The agenda

• 7am BST: UK retail sales report for March

• 9.30am BST: UK trade data for Q4 2024

• 3pm BST: University of Michigan’s survey of US consumer confidence

• 3pm BST: IMF holds press conference on the economic outlook for Europe