Cummins conundrum is key as Australia try not to overthink tactics

At last, at long last, an Ashes series is about to start. It feels that way, anyway, after so many months of lead-up, such an eternal blur of preview and prediction and preamble, were supposed to reach their end – only to find that the end was instead a momentary interruption, a hiccup, an indigestion-dream of a Test from Perth, a contest done in the span of 31 hours, leaving everyone to return to punditry and prognostication for a further 11 blasted and benighted days.

We are, for pity’s sake, in a discussion cycle about Ben Stokes correctly applying a bike helmet while not on a bike, or Steve Smith correctly applying eye-black stickers in his Tim Tebow tribute act, or the archaeologically uncovered fact that Australian teams have a good record at the Gabba. Like farmers waiting for the rains, we are praying for play to start to let us talk about something that has happened, rather than something that might. Even the day-night format means another wait, four more hours than would usually be the case before the balm of the first ball.

England confirmed their team well in advance with an interesting call, deciding that the best way to improve a side whose reckless batting imploded is by including a top-order T20 smasher at No 8 because he might bowl a few overs of spin that they do not think they need. But just at the moment when anyone observing this series felt that there was literally nothing left to talk about, Australia will now wait until the toss to decide on a gamble in their XI that they may be willing to take.

The call is whether to include the regular captain Pat Cummins as part of a dizzying game of three-card monte that selectors have been playing with the squad in recent days. Usman Khawaja was included in that squad despite recent injury, then ruled out because of the same injury. Cummins was ruled out because of recent injury, and may come into the XI despite not being in the squad. The possible knock-on effects of both are convoluted.

Cummins, it seems, is now feeling good enough in training that waiting for the third Test in Adelaide seems excessive. But overnight nerves might get the better of anyone in the decision-making chain, pondering the fallout that would await them if that comeback turned out to be too soon. That leaves a nation of Australians in the highly unusual position of going to sleep the night before a Test match without knowing who will captain the team the next day. The stand-in, Steve Smith, took the press conference as though he would do the job, but declined to confirm that this would be the case.

If Cummins returns, the cards in the dealer’s hands could be whisked in various ways around the table. Perhaps in order to mitigate the number of overs required of him, he could be part of a four-man pace attack and replace Nathan Lyon. That might also mean bringing Beau Webster into the middle order, given he could offer spin. If Cummins plays alongside Lyon, instead replacing Brendan Doggett as one of three quicks, Webster could still be included to bowl backup seam alongside Cameron Green.

Could Pat Cummins’ return make way for Beau Webster? Photograph: Robbie Stephenson/PA

If Webster does not bat in the middle, Josh Inglis will, because Travis Head will open the batting. Unless, that is, they decide to send Inglis up to open in the first innings, but perhaps send Head up to do the job second time around if they need to chase as they did in Perth, or to add fast third-innings runs before bowling in an evening session.

Lyon, meanwhile, has no cause to be dropped simply because he is a spinner and the ball is pink. Much has been made of him being left out in Jamaica earlier this year, and two pink-ball Tests in Adelaide 2024 and Hobart 2022, where he was not required. This reasoning absurdly omits the other 11 day-night tests that he has played, all of which have seen him bowl more than 20 overs in the match, five of which have topped 40 overs, and the highest of which was 67 overs.

Don’t get carried away, is the subtext. Pink-ball games can move in fast forward. So can red-ball games, as we saw at the start of this series 1 million years ago. Plenty of the time, though, pink-ball cricket can be long and slow and require graft, just like the other stuff. There will be tactical considerations about batting time in an effort to bowl in the evenings, but the evenings can be got through or turned to the batting team’s advantage, like any other session. Even in this series, even in this format, even if surprise inclusions do come to pass, there is still a chance that over five days, some of the cricket might feel normal. If it is another fast one, at least we will have 11 days to chat until Adelaide.