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Their party is flatlining in the polls, largely lacking in policies and on the verge of a heavy kicking in the local elections. And yet in Westminster, many Conservatives seem almost cheery. What exactly is going on?
Critics – including some Tories – may argue this is wishful thinking and displacement activity by MPs and shadow ministers who cannot accept that Kemi Badenoch is not up to the job of leading a party in existential trouble.
But others, not all of them allies of Badenoch, say she is being written off too early, and that the rapidly changing voter loyalties of modern UK politics mean the Tories could return to power after just one term in opposition, despite current polls showing them behind Labour and Reform.
Some shadow ministers even use the comparison of Donald Trump, seemingly a defunct force after losing the 2020 US presidential election, who not only returned four years later but did so with a highly radical and focused approach on how to wield power again.
“We can learn a lot from Trump,” one shadow minister said. “His team spent their time out of office working out not just what they wanted to do, but how they could make sure it happened, and at speed.
“That’s what we need to do. For better or for worse, no one could accuse Trump Two of not having a plan of action.”
Badenoch has spoken repeatedly in Trump-like terms about wanting to entirely “re-wire” her party and the UK state, and it is in this context that she is declining to spell out an immediate suite of policies.
This does not mean a complete policy vacuum, with Badenoch using a speech on Tuesday to abandon the two-party consensus on a 2050 target to reach net zero.
It is a cause that many Tories believe is electorally popular – one Labour insider describes the party as “Uxbridge-brained” by the byelection that they won unexpectedly in part because of a pushback against the expansion of London’s ultra-low emissions zone (Ulez). Farage’s party has pursued a explicitly anti-net zero platform.
Most polls, however, suggest that action on climate is popular – the most recent from the Conservative Environment Network found 82% of Conservative voters want a consensus on tackling climate change, with only 11% opposed.
In her speech on Tuesday, Badenoch denied it was pure politics – or imitating Reform – saying it was her long-held belief that net zero by 2050 was “impossible”. At the launch of what she said would be a significant overhaul of the party’s policy platform, Badenoch said she was starting with net zero, which she described as being emblematic of policy without a plan.
“Anyone who has done any serious analysis knows it can’t be achieved without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us,” she said, to great applause from MPs in the room. Labour said the stance would repel investors and keep the UK dependent on dictators and fossil fuels.
The policy renewal programme will take a while. One shadow minister said they and fellow frontbenchers had been told they did not need to complete their platforms until the end of 2027: “The earliest there will be an election is 2028, and very probably not before 2029. If we tie ourselves down to detailed policies too early, the world is changing so fast that we risk being out of date.
“No opposition party ever wrote their manifesto four years before an election.”
Such carefully plotted strategy might sound plausible in theory, but it is already bumping up against increasingly strong currents of everyday politics, including the weekly scene of Badenoch being easily seen off by Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions.
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Some of her allies argue this narrative is overplayed. “What Kemi does at PMQs is to give Starmer a chance to show his worst qualities, the fact he doesn’t answer questions, the way he can be condescending and treat the whole thing as a bit of an inconvenience,” one said.
But others warn that while most people pay little attention to PMQs, among those who do are Tory MPs and party activists, and that her seeming inability to improve is harming morale.
A notably bigger hit to sentiment is expected on 1 May, when voters in England go to the polls to choose councillors last selected in 2021, when the Conservatives were at the peak of the heady, if short-lived, vaccine poll bounce under Boris Johnson, when the Conservatives took more than 45% of the votes, and an astonishing 65% of all councillors. It leaves the party with not far short of 1,000 councillors to defend on 1 May, with even hopeful projections indicating they will lose more than half of them.
For all that the context is unusual, senior Tories say this will be a blow. “Don’t underestimate the impact of local election losses on the rank and file,” one shadow minister said. “Yes, 2021 was a particularly good year, but we’re going to lose a lot of people who have been councillors for a long time, and that will inevitably affect morale.”
This minister argued that Badenoch could face more open dissent as the year goes on: “The next party conference could well be more tricky than the last one. There’s not the distraction of a leadership contest, so the focus will inevitably be more about what people like James Cleverly or Robert Jenrick are saying at fringe events.”
But perhaps more than anything else, there is one very tangible reason for the current outbreak of relatively good spirits: everyone knows that it could be worse.
“We survived a near-death experience in the general election,” a shadow cabinet minister said. “We got through a long leadership campaign without a major split. And now the government seems to be a bit rubbish. There are some reasons to be cheerful.”
