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Ecuadorians go to the polls on Sunday in a vote seen as a referendum on a “war on drugs” offensive that has led to numerous human rights violations, as the incumbent Daniel Noboa faces the leftist Luisa González in a tightly contested runoff.
Noboa, 37, edged out González, 47, in the first round in February by just 16,746 votes (0.17%) from a 13.7 million electorate.
Polls now indicate a statistical tie in the rematch of Ecuador’s 2023 runoff, when the then little-known heir to a banana fortune unexpectedly won a snap election to complete the term of former president Guillermo Lasso, who had dissolved Congress and stepped down to avoid impeachment.
In his first months in office, Noboa declared an “internal armed conflict” and placed the armed forces at the centre of his mano dura (iron fist) policy against drug-trafficking gangs.
After an initial drop in crime, reports of human rights violations mounted, and violence levels soon returned to previous highs: Ecuador still has the highest homicide rate in Latin America, and the figures for January and February are the highest on record.
Last month, one of the most violent massacres in the country’s history took place in Socio Vivienda II, an impoverished neighbourhood in north-west Guayaquil, when 22 people were killed in a confrontation between rival gang factions.
“Everything is worse now,” said María, a Socio Vivienda II resident who asked not to be identified by her full name. “We’ve been abandoned by the state and left without the rule of law,” she said, adding that dozens of residents still had not been able to return home because of ongoing fighting.
But violence is far from the only issue affecting Noboa’s popularity. An energy crisis led to scheduled blackouts of up to 14 hours, GDP fell by 1.5% and the poverty rate rose from 26% to 28% between 2023 and 2024.
“Life has become unbearable,” said María. “You only eat once a day, and then you have to save a little for the afternoon so the children have something to eat. We just want to live with dignity,” she added.
In a YouGov survey commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), 61% of respondents said their economic situation and personal security had not improved since Noboa took office.
“The economy is not doing better, security is not doing better, people are facing blackouts, and they’re also witnessing a deterioration of the rule of law, with growing disregard for the constitution,” said Pedro Labayen Herrera, a researcher at CEPR specialising in Ecuador.
The political analyst Matías Abad Merchán said: “Despite Noboa having been in power for a short time, a small anti-Noboa segment of the electorate has indeed emerged – one that genuinely feels the president displays certain authoritarian tendencies.”
The president refused to step down during the electoral campaign period, as required by the constitution.
He also sparked an unprecedented diplomatic crisis by ordering police and military forces to storm the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, once a vice-president under the former leftist president Rafael Correa.
Correa – who has lived in Belgium since leaving office and was convicted in 2020 by an Ecuadorian court for corruption during his presidency – is González’s political patron.
Noboa, on the other hand, has made efforts to showcase support from the US president: the Ecuadorian leader left his country in the middle of the campaign to travel to Florida, where he posed for a photo with Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.
The incumbent has become embroiled in several controversies in the race’s final stretch.
He announced a “strategic alliance” with Erik Prince – the Trump-aligned founder of the controversial private military firm Blackwater – to supposedly reinforce his “war” on crime.
In early April, the Brazilian investigative outlet Pública revealed that at least three times cocaine has been found hidden in banana containers being sent to Europe by a company in which Noboa and his brother are the majority shareholders.
During a presidential debate, Noboa denied any wrongdoing and said that the family’s banana company was cooperating with investigators.
After the first round, Noboa alleged – without providing evidence – that there had been “irregularities”, a claim promptly rejected by observers from the European Union and the Organization of American States. For the runoff, he stated that he would only accept defeat “if there was no indication of fraud”.
“So if things don’t go his way, I think there’s a real risk that he won’t accept the results,” said Herrera.
On Wednesday, 14 Democratic members of the US Congress sent a letter to the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, expressing concern that Noboa might not accept the results if he loses: “It’s therefore imperative that you send a clear message to the government of Ecuador and other Ecuadorian leaders emphasising the need for a free, fair and transparent electoral process, and noting that, if electoral observers determine these conditions to be met, the outcome of the election must be respected,” they wrote.
