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If England want to win the Six Nations this season they’ll likely have to thwack Italy and then Wales by hefty margins.
France’s point difference is +106. England’s is -3. So you’d expect the home side to have something of a cricket score in mind today.
Not so according to the skipper, who is urging his mates to keep the main thing the main thing.
England have kicked the ball more than any other side this Six Nations. They’ve hoofed it 120 times but only Scotland have a lower kick retention rate than England’s 10%. So maybe they should do it less?
Meanwhile are top for gain-line success (63%), tackle evasion (26%) and dominant carries (38%), so there’s something to work on.
Gerard Meagher goes beyond mere stats as he cooks up a tasty narrative. Here he asks if England have the right ingredients to be successful, or if we should be pointing fingers at the head chef:
Have you got some sympathy for Marcus Smith, the man who held the keys to this England attack but has since been plonked in the sidecar?
“Has England’s attack looked clunky because of Marcus’s performances or because of the philosophy the team is imbued with? I’d say the latter,” says Ugo Monye.
Do you agree with the former winger?
Antoine Dupont has ruptured his ruptured cruciate ligament
No matter who you support, this is big news.
Antoine Dupont, the world’s best player, (by all means, fight me in the comments) will be sidelined for some time after picking up a nasty injury yesterday in France’s win over Ireland.
Dupont gave the update in a post on Instagram on Sunday afternoon, writing: “Cruciate ligaments ruptured. It is the beginning of a new challenge, I will see you in a few months on the pitches.”
Italy team
Unsurprisingly, after their shellacking against France, there are several changes for Italy.
Six in fact. Matt Gallagher, who was born in London and represented England’s U20s on four occasions, makes his Six Nations debut on the wing in place of Simone Gesi.
Monty Ione is fit again and starts on the other wing which means the dangerous Ange Capuozzo moves to fullback. Tommasso Allan drops to the bench.
Stephen Varney starts at scrum-half. The Three changes to the pack sees Giacomo Nicotera, Marco Riccioni and Exeter’s Ross Vintcent all coming in.
Italy: 15-Capuozzo; 14-Ioane, 13-Brex, 12-Menoncello, 11-Gallagher, 10-P Garbisi, 9-Varney; 1-Fischetti, 2-Nicotera, 3-Riccioni, 4-N Cannone, 5-Ruzza, 6-Negri, 7-Lamaro (capt) 8-Vintcent
Replacements: 16-Lucchesi, 17-Spagnolo, 18-Ferrari, 19-Favretto, 20-Zuliani, 21-L Cannone, 22-Page-Relo, 23-Allan
England team
Marcus Smith’s move to the bench is one of three changes to the team that squeaked past Scotland last time out.
Elliot Daly slots in at full-back to make his first Test start at 15 in four years.
Jamie George starts at hooker and will become the seventh English men’s player to reach 100 Tests. Luke Cowan-Dickie shifts to the bench.
Fraser Dingwall gets a go at centre in his third Test start. He replaces Henry Slade.
On the bench, Jack van Poortvliet is preferred to Harry Randall.
England: 15-Daly; 14-Freeman, 13-Lawrence, 12-Dingwall, 11-Sleightholme; 10-F Smith, 9-Mitchell; 1-Genge, 2-George, 3-Stuart, 4-Itoje (capt), 5-Chessum, 6-T Curry, 7-Earl, 8-T Willis.
Replacements: 16-Cowan-Dickie, 17-Baxter, 18-Heyes, 19-T Hill, 20-Cunningham-South, 21-B Curry, 22-Van Poortvliet, 23-M Smith
Preamble
Now then, are England in a Six Nations title challenge? Mathematically they’ve got a real shout thanks to France’s demolition of Ireland yesterday. In fact, if England bag a bonus point win this afternoon, they’ll leapfrog Ireland into second place on the table with a final showdown against Wales to come. Have we officially entered ‘whisper it quietly’ territory yet?
Of course nothing is guaranteed here. Despite Italy shipping 11 tries to France in their last match, there’s no doubt they’re an improved outfit. Sure they haven’t quite fired on all cylinders this campaign but they’ve got enough firepower in the backline to hurt any defence. However, they are brittle in the tight five and around the fringe on defence, and if England can find a way to get out of second gear on attack, they could put on a rare show at HQ.
Steve Borthwick has copped some criticism for his pragmatic kick-heavy approach. But the team is winning, and, barring a proper mess against the two weakest teams, they could finish second having placed third, fourth, third and fifth in the last four years.
Can they do the business today? We’ll find out once things kick-off at 3pm. Team news and further updates to come til then. And if you’ve got thoughts on this game or any other this weekend, feel free to write in.