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A few days before the Munich Security Conference, one of the Ukrainian military officers fighting on the eastern Ukrainian border told me about intercepts of the Russian army talks their unit had obtained. Russian middle-level commanders were instructing their subordinates to hold on for a bit as “with Donald Trump in the office”, their “goals would finally be met, and the fight would be over soon”. The Ukrainians pointed out that it was not a unique intercept, and the idea that the new American president was good for Moscow troops was being widely expressed by the Russians.
Recently, I asked Ukrainian frontline soldiers what they thought about the negotiations. Those in action are too busy fighting to follow everyday news from Munich, Riyadh, Washington and Kyiv. Yet they generally feel that “Donald Trump is heading in the wrong direction”. Today, as Trump “pauses” all military aid, they will know those instincts were right.
It was never the case that American defence assistance – the real leverage the US has to pressure Ukraine to enter the deal with Russia – didn’t matter to them. For the last weeks the Ukrainian media has been full of analysis and comment by the Ukrainian military on whether it is possible to fight without America’s weapons. Soldiers and officers explained which equipment is critical to the effort, and raised concerns that the military leadership should have decreased its dependence on the Elon Musk-owned Starlink satellite service way earlier. But other military remind us that during the first months of the full-scale invasion, they fought with little US support, as the weapons they had initially been given were more suitable for guerrilla warfare than conventional war.
There is more hope than expectation, even resignation now when it comes to Trump. Today’s decision, blocking billions in crucial shipments – ammunition and vehicles – has dismayed many but surprises no one.
After the grimly historic White House encounter between Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and vice-president JD Vance, it was feared that one repercussion would be exactly this sudden withdrawal of US military aid. It was a fear Ukrainians had but were loth to speak of until it happened. Now it has happened. How long a “pause” will there be and what effect: who knows?
On the ground level, the Ukrainian military leadership will plan how to substitute the equipment that was supposed to come first. Delivering weapons from the Polish border to the frontline usually takes time.
This morning, the Ukrainian air force reported destroying 65 Russian drones in nine Ukrainian regions. The suspension of the US weapons, which include ammunition, vehicles, and shells for air defence, won’t affect today’s battlefield. But it gives the Russians reason to intensify attacks on the energy infrastructure, something they have failed to destroy so far, primarily due to the existence of air defence. Also, after this step by Washington, the military expects the Kremlin to launch more ground attacks to exhaust Ukrainian arsenals.
The Ukrainian government will search for ways to resume communication with the White House mainly to give the country more time.
There was always a difference in perception about the “deal” offered by Trump, that is at the heart of the deteriorating US-Ukraine relations. The media and political class saw it one way, the people another. The press has been focused on things such as the proposed mineral rights agreement, and the meeting between the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and his Russian counterpart, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. But Ukrainians didn’t consider either of those as being likely to end the war. Rather, both were sent as signs of the Trump administration resetting its relationships with Ukraine and separately with Russia – introducing new demands of payment for support in the former case, and indicating a willingness to restart relations in the latter.
After Friday’s angry encounter, it became clear that the While House believed Zelenskyy should be ready to accept any agreement, as Trump’s word should be seen as a sufficient guarantee. The US president insisted that Vladimir Putin wouldn’t make further attacks because he respects Trump. Challenging the idea that Trump’s word is not enough is already seen by Washington as disrespectful and offensive. Of course Ukrainians fear any settlement that does not provide explicit security guarantees and allows the Kremlin to use the pause to prepare itself for a renewed and intensified offensive.
Ukrainians noted but were not shaken by Trump and Vance’s tone. For decades, we have had to communicate with Russians, who have lied, threatened and mocked human suffering. Even some European neighbours, the Hungarian and Slovakian leaders, act this way. During this latest meeting, it became evident that US leaders do not see Putin – the man whose army committed war crimes – as their enemy. All can see now that in Trump’s world, as in Putin’s world, a few big states have rights and can dominate small states.
The problem is not Zelenskyy not having “good cards”, as the US leader said. It’s an American president using his cards to help Putin. Since the American president does not want to have confrontational relations with the Kremlin, his only solution for the end of the war is to force Ukraine to agree to the Russian terms and for Trump, it looks like the fastest option.
What to do next? Until now, Kyiv’s ultimate goal was to garner global support to end the war with an agreement that would bring strong security guarantees. Ukrainians were and are ready to compromise, but security guarantees matter the most. Their modalities may be discussed: providing weapons to the extent that the army would be capable of defending itself at any given moment, investing in Ukraine’s defence industry, providing comprehensive air defence, sending foreign peacekeepers and integrating Ukraine further into western security architecture.
If those cards are not on the table, any freeze benefits Moscow.
Still, the only reasonable option for Ukraine is to continue fighting, relying on itself plus the backing of Europe and other global partners whose support is genuine and values-based. There will be a high price to pay. And the burden will be on the shoulders of Ukrainian soldiers, who are still fighting actual battles while Ukrainian and European leaders are caught in a geopolitical storm.
So far, Ukrainians truly believe that security guarantees provided by the US and Europe together will be treated seriously by the Kremlin, which considers Europe alone weak. Right after Vance’s Munich speech attacking Europe, Zelenskyy called European leaders to help him talk to the Americans (which they did). Ukraine understands well how precious transatlantic unity is.
Zelenskyy will search for a way not to alienate the White House further, and “apologise” (even without understanding for what).
But after the White House meeting, and even more today, a new question arises: if the goal is to have the US be part of the solution to the Russian invasion and a guarantor of peace, is it reasonable for Ukraine to trust and count on the new US administration? What if something it signs today is dismissed tomorrow? Would the promises be delivered? Could Republicans as a whole – despite supporting Ukraine in its right to defend itself in this just war, and despite promoting policies to deter Russian threats for decades – change their tune according to the mood in the White House? We can’t know the answers. We can only press on each day.
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Nataliya Gumenyuk is a Ukrainian journalist and CEO of the Public Interest Journalism Lab
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