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A one-stop race seems to be de jour strategy for today’s race, with it likely that those starting on a medium tyre will look to start pitting around the 20 lap mark to put some hard tyres on. For those going from hards to medium, conversely, it’s likely that they’ll start coming in around the lap 30 mark.
For those looking to leap up the grid such as Tsunoda, starting on softs to make some early ground and then pitting early to put some hards on and undercut the field as they start to come in could be an option as well.
Of course, if the rains do come during the race teams will need to adapt.
After both its drivers were disqualified in Shanghai – somewhat spoiling Lewis Hamilton’s sprint race win – Ferrari will be looking to bounce back in a big way in today’s race.
Charles Leclerc will start next to Piastri on the second row as he pursues this rebound and has spoken about his belief that his race pace is quicker than his one-lap pace. If that will be sufficient to stay with the McLarens, though, is another matter entirely.
Hamilton, meanwhile, wasn’t able to nail his final qualifying as his teammate did and will start in eighth, tasked with getting past Hadjar and the Mercedes’ of Russell and Antonelli if he’s to link up with his stablemate.
Pole is always important, of course, but it could prove especially so for Verstappen today.
The Dutchman has gone coast-to-coast from the front of the grid in the last three races in Suzuka and while he hasn’t had to deal with the kind of gap between himself and a rival’s car like experiencing this season with the McLarens, his drive to secure pole yesterday shows you right him off at your peril.
Looking at the latest weather update from Suzuka, it’s currently 14 degrees Celsius (58 in freedom units) with about a 40% chance of rain in the coming hours.
Forecast rain did hit the track this morning and that will have something of an impact but it appears to be drying rather rapidly.
Importantly, that coating of precipitation will have also dampened the grass surrounding the circuit and, hopefully, that will prevent the outbreak of the kind of spot fires that erupted during practice and qualifying and led to delays.
While most of the attention sent Racing Bulls way in the build-up to this race has centred on former-driver Tsunoda and new-driver Lawson, it was Isack Hadjar that stole the show in qualifying on Saturday; repeating his exploits from Shanghai by qualifying in seventh.
The 20-year-old did this despite being in visible discomfort and repeatedly getting on the radio to complain about an issue in the cockpit, which was quickly determined to surround his seatbelts were fastened in an uncomfortably tight manner across his torso and… ahhh… other sensitive areas.
“I had issues with the seatbelts so I had to jump out, jump back in and it was fine,” he said.
“It compromised my first run in Q1, then it was driveable thankfully on that final lap in Q1 to get through to Q2. I was in pain a bit and then for the rest I could reset and just focus on driving fast, and it worked.”
Giles Richards’ is in Suzuka to cover this weekend’s events, here’s his report on Verstappen guiding his temperamental Red Bull to a remarkable pole.
What does Red Bull’s 2025 F1 season have in common with Manchester City’s 2024-25 campaign? More than you might think.
Giles Richards explains.
You’ll notice that there’s been a change in the grid order from how they qualified, as Carlos Sainz was hit with a three-grid-place penalty following qualifying’s conclusion when stewards adjudged him to have impeded Lewis Hamilton and his Ferrari during Q2.
The Grid in Suzuka
1. Max Verstappen - Red Bull
2. Lando Norris - McLaren
3. Oscar Piastri - McLaren
4. Charles Leclerc - Ferrari
5. George Russell - Mercedes
6. Kimi Antonelli - Mercedes
7. Isack Hadjar - Racing Bulls
8. Lewis Hamilton - Ferrari
9. Alexander Albon - Williams
10. Oliver Bearman - Haas
11. Pierre Gasly - Alpine
12. Fernando Alonso - Aston Martin
13. Liam Lawson - Racing Bulls
14. Yuki Tsunoda - Red Bull
15. Carlos Sainz - Williams
16. Nico Hulkenberg - Sauber
17. Gabriel Bortoleto - Sauber
18. Esteban Ocon - Haas
19. Jack Doohan - Alpine
20. Lance Stroll - Aston Martin
Preamble
Joey Lynch
Howdy one and all and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the third race of the 2025 Formula 1 season, coming to you this afternoon from the Suzuka Circuit in Japan.
Splitting wins in Melbourne and Shanghai between them across the opening two races of the season, qualifying began yesterday with the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri to set the pace at this famous track. The papaya-clad drivers had tipped the Mercedes of George Russell as having the ability to upset their plans. But Max Verstappen had other ideas.
The reigning world champion stunned the field with a remarkable flying lap in Q3 yesterday to secure a fourth-straight pole in Japan, logging a 1:26.983 lap that Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner called “one of his best laps in qualifying ever” to pip Norris by 0.012s and Piastri and 0.044s.
If the Red Bull has the race pace to keep Verstappen ahead of the McLarens when we go lights out looms large over today.
Looming, too, is the pace of Verstappen’s new stablemate Yuki Tsunoda. The hometown hero was able to get the second Red Bull car into Q2 for the first time this season on Saturday but that was quickly overshadowed when he ultimately qualified behind the man he replaced at Red Bull, now-Racing Bulls driver Liam Lawson.
The Kiwi driver’s rapid demotion from Red Bull has proven an early season flashpoint and fuel will only be poured onto the fire if Tsunoda ultimately can’t find a way past him today.
Add to this George Russell seeking to extend his podium streak, rookies Kimi Antonelli and Isack Hadjar starting in the top ten, the early-season pace issues of the Ferraris, and plenty more, there’s going to be plenty to keep our attention today. And that’s not even mentioning the potential wet conditions that could circle!
Lights Out: 2pm JST /10pm PT/6am BST/3pm AEST
