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How has the weekend gone so far for the other frontrunners?
First free practice was a Mercedes one-two, with Antonelli second by 0.026sec, with the McLarens of Norris and Piastri just behind. There was more encouragement for the constructors’ champions in FP2, with Piastri going fastest. McLaren were quick to say they expected Mercedes and Ferrari to be out in front once the action became competitive but, in the context of Norris’s run to fifth in Melbourne being the only full-race action the team have done this season, this was at least encouraging. Charles Leclerc was the faster of the Ferraris in the first two sessions, ahead of Lewis Hamilton.
Norris did manage third in sprint qualifying in China, dropping one place in the sprint race. He and Piastri were less than two 10ths slower than the Ferraris in GP qualifying in Shanghai. For all that both cars failed to start the race because of power-unit problems, McLaren’s underlying form suggests that sooner or later they could disrupt the leading four. As Russell said: “McLaren were pretty fast, so a little bit of a surprise, to be honest.”
Ferrari think they have not made progress. Diego Ioverno, their sporting director, said: “The gap is more or less where we expected it to be, also quite in line with the first two races, especially in the short runs. We have to improve.”
Preamble
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose? George Russell may hope not.
The comprehensive changes in Formula One’s regulations mean 2026 is very different to 2025 in many regards, but a similarity between the results of the first two grands prix this year and last could hint at one enduring echo of the previous campaign.
Last year and this, two different drivers from the same team – then Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, now Russell and Kimi Antonelli – stood on the top step in Australia and China respectively. In 2025 that was the cue for a title battle within McLaren that lasted through to the autumn, when Max Verstappen joined in; could Mercedes v Mercedes be the dominant theme in 2026, and could that then allow a rival to have a late shout at the world championship?
There has been no equivalent yet from Mercedes of McLaren’s “Go racing” mantra, which contributed enormously to the excitement of last season. It also allowed Verstappen, eventually, to close within striking distance, after Piastri and Norris took points off each other – and indeed the team, when they clashed.
You have to think that Russell, like the bookmakers, will see this as being his time: Antonelli is a teenager in his second year in F1, which he started with just three podium finishes, and China was his first pole and first win. The Briton, at 28, had eight poles, five wins and 24 podiums before this campaign, and had waited patiently for the technological advantage to accrue to Mercedes once more, as he discussed with our Giles Richards.
But world titles are not just given to anyone, and Russell needs to seize his moment, starting this weekend at Suzuka and the Japanese Grand Prix. He was unlucky in China: he took the sprint race from pole but his chances of qualifying fastest for the main race were restricted by an electrical problem in Q3, allowing Antonelli to take charge. Russell may also be cursing Donald Trump: while there are myriad more serious repercussions of the US and Israeli war with Iran, the cancellation of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs means Mercedes will have fewer opportunities to capitalise on their initial technological advantage and other teams, freed of the need to concentrate on the now, may catch up quicker.
There is a five-week gap to the next race, in Miami, longer than the summer pause between Hungary and the Netherlands, and that is the sole race before Montreal on 24 May. The outlook for Russell would be a lot sunnier if he spent the whole of April with a minimum 11-point lead over Antonelli and at least 24 over anyone outside Mercedes. No pressure, George.
Join us from 6am GMT to see how he and his rivals get on.
