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This week may come to be the moment when Keir Starmer’s reputation as the hard man of the Labour party was tested to its limits. How far is the prime minister really prepared to push his MPs?
He has the raw numbers to do whatever he chooses – there is no chance of the changes being halted in parliament – but the consequences of forcing his MPs to swallow harsh welfare cuts affecting millions of people will be long-lasting.
Labour MPs are anguished at the torment of disabled constituents in limbo over the government’s planned changes, which will finally be announced on Tuesday. The wait has been intolerable, caused by internal Whitehall battles and then a major party backlash that have repeatedly delayed and changed the government’s plans.
From the start, the government has struggled to communicate a clear vision for its planned reform – because it is trying to do two different and perhaps incongruent things at the same time. It is trying to tackle a deep-rooted and complex societal problem, and trying to save money to present to the budget watchdog at the spring statement. In reality, ministers know the problem is far more complicated than a balance sheet.
When Starmer speaks to Labour MPs, or when they receive their briefings in Downing Street, they speak of the disturbing phenomenon of growing numbers of young people too sick to work, a justified fear from many that to risk trying a job may end up with them back in a queue for a cruel benefits reassessment and in potential destitution.
A powerpoint presented by key No 10 officials, including manifesto author turned economic adviser Rav Athwal, attempted to demonstrate how the UK was a major outlier among Europe nations in the projected growth of its spend on disability benefits.
But what MPs know is that no matter how many times they are told there is a “moral case” for reform, it is cold, hard numbers that are the major driving factor. If they are to squeeze the criteria for employment support allowance in order to drive more young people to seek work, that will also cause untold anxiety for the most vulnerable disabled people in society, who will never be able to work but who will see their incomes cut.
Freezing Pip – the most controversial of all the proposals so far – is the one measure most likely to deliver concrete numbers to a Treasury balance sheet. But that looks set to be dumped because Labour MPs are in uproar.
It is easy perhaps to agree with Starmer’s principle that it is wrong that one in eight young people are not in work – but harder to swallow the reality when you look at the criteria, which is set to be amended.
Ministers will reportedly set the criteria for PIP higher than needing help to wash your lower body below the waist or those who need help with eating or who need prompts to communicate.
The intention is clearly intended to raise the bar higher in order to exclude those with autism or other mental health conditions, but already there are fears that people who are deaf or suffer with conditions like MS or dementia will find themselves newly excluded.
The original intention of Pip was to help with the cost of living, which is by necessity much higher for disabled people. There is no doubt that MPs will see child poverty rise on their watch because of these measures – a cause many of them came in to politics to fix.
Faced with that, the “moral case” becomes far harder to make. And Labour MPs say they will not make it. And there will be no blame laid at the feet of the welfare secretary, Liz Kendall, who MPs say has been making a clear and compassionate case to them for many months, and fighting to keep her own department’s savings in order to start new programmes to help people back into work. Any anger will come direct to the gates of Downing Street.
There is also a growing and deeper malaise in the Labour party, which should worry No 10 – a sense that the government has started to lose its compass for why voters delivered such a resounding verdict on the Conservatives – the cost of living and the state of public services. Many are already loudly grumbling about how little they can speak to voters about the promise of AI or the reorganisations of some quangos.
If Starmer follows through with yet another bitter pill for them to swallow this week, there will come a time many will start refusing to take the medicine.
