Labour must target deprived areas or lose out to Reform, says former minister

Keir Starmer’s government must strictly target the delivery of its core “missions” at areas of maximum deprivation or lose huge numbers of votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, an independent commission led by a former Labour cabinet minister will suggest this week.

The Independent Commission on Neighbourhoods (ICON), chaired by Labour peer Hilary Armstrong, a former party chief whip and housing minister, will say the government risks “wasting billions of pounds in higher public spending while failing to transform the places that need it most” unless it adopts the targeted approach.

The report identifies more than 600 “mission critical” neighbourhoods in England that are most in need of investment and are critically short of “social infrastructure” and the “physical and community facilities that bring people together to build meaningful relationships”.

Eight of the 10 parliamentary constituencies cited by the report as most in need of investment are in the Midlands or the north of England. Many are “around cities such as Manchester, Liverpool, Sunderland and Newcastle – as well other post-industrial regions like the West Midlands (including Birmingham)”, it says.

A briefing document to government ministers, based on the report’s findings and seen by The Observer, says that even since the general election last summer there is evidence that Reform has deepened its support in these most deprived areas.

The note, written ahead of the report’s publication on Wednesday, says: “The number of highly disadvantaged neighbourhoods based in seats demonstrating high support for Reform (30%-40% vote share) has increased significantly since the election, from just 4.8% of these neighbourhoods to 26.2%. The number of those based in ‘Reform stronghold’ areas (those polling above 40%) has also risen from 1.4% to 4.8%. All existing Reform MPs have some of the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods in their seats.”

Polling carried out for the commission, which will also be published on Wednesday, shows support for the Reform party is driven by voter concerns about issues such as antisocial behaviour, crime and litter on the streets.

Hilary Armstrong says Reform has deepened its support in deprived areas since Labour took office. Photograph: Murdo Macleod/The Observer

The commission identified the UK’s areas most in need by analysing local attitudes to crime, health, energy, jobs and educational achievement, alongside publicly available data. As part of the in-depth investigation it used that data to compile an index of areas that score poorly when measured against the government’s five “missions”.

The accompanying briefing adds: “Constituencies containing neighbourhoods that are furthest behind on the government’s missions tend to be those that are demonstrating greater support for Reform.”

Starmer’s government set out the missions ahead of July’s general election to focus minds on Labour’s policy offering. The missions promised to deliver safer streets, economic growth, green energy, better education and NHS reform.

The report argues that a “trickledown” approach – the idea that the most in need will benefit over time from a policy delivered nationally rather than in a more targeted way – is destined to fail.

The polling, carried out by Public First, found that “highest need” neighbourhoods were more concerned about litter (53%), antisocial behaviour (49%) and illegal drugs (48%) than “lowest need” neighbourhoods.

The report will urge ministers to “transform places street by street, estate by estate” through public investment in “social infrastructure” and by supporting economic development. With focusing support on areas most in need it risks “wasting billions of pounds in higher public spending while failing to transform the places that need it most”.

ICON was launched in September 2024 to address the challenges faced in England’s most disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

The government is understood to be looking closely at its work and ministers are meeting regularly with the commission. Others on the commission include the mayor of the North East, Kim McGuinness, and former government advisor Dr David Halpern.

Last month YouGov published the first national opinion poll to suggest that Reform UK had overtaken Labour, placing it on 25%, one point ahead of Labour and four ahead of the Conservatives.