Net migration fell by almost 50% in 2024 to 431,000, ONS says – UK politics live

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The Home Office has also released a whole raft of data relating to immigration, asylum, resettlement and returns. The various tables and reports are all here. I will post the highlights shortly.

This is from the Migration Observatory, a migration thinktank based at Oxford University, on the ONS figures. They don’t normally get this excited about anything …

Blimey. Long term net migration down by almost 50% to 431,000. Massive decline - we’ve expected this for a while...

Here is the chart from the ONS report showing what has happened to net migration.

Net migration figures Photograph: ONS

Commenting on the net migration figures (see 9.38am), Mary Gregory, director of population statistics at the Office for National Statistics, said:

Our provisional estimates show net migration has almost halved compared with the previous year, driven by falling numbers of people coming to work and study, particularly student dependants. This follows policy changes brought in restricting visa applications.

There has also been an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased.

Net migration fell by almost 50% in 2024 to 431,000, ONS says

Net migration fell by almost 50% in 2024, compared to the previous year, the Office for National Statistics has said.

In a report out this morning, it says:

Long-term net migration is down by almost 50%. The number of people immigrating minus the number of people emigrating is provisionally estimated to be 431,000 in year ending (YE) December 2024, compared with 860,000 a year earlier.

This change is driven by a decrease in immigration from non-EU+ nationals, where we are seeing reductions in people arriving on work- and study-related visas, and an increase in emigration over the 12 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased.

The provisional estimate for total long-term immigration for YE December 2024 is 948,000, a decrease of almost a third from the revised YE December 2023 estimate of 1,326,000 and the first time it has been below 1 million since YE March 2022.

The provisional estimate for total long-term emigration for YE December 2024 is 517,000, an increase of around 11% compared with the previous year (466,000). Emigration is now at a similar level to YE June 2017.

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Tories accuse Labour of ‘decriminalising crimes’ as plans to reduce sentencing announced

Good morning. Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, is today announcing plans intended to reduce the amount of time offenders spend in jail. It is not a surprise – the main proposals have been on the table for some time – but it is still a big change from the way governments of all parties have run penal policy over the past few decades. Britain jails more people than most other countries in western Europe and recently sentences have been getting longer.

Average length of custodial sentences Photograph: Gauke review

Mahmood appointed David Gauke, the liberal-minded former Tory justice secretary, to carry out a review of sentencing policy and his final report is out this morning. He has also published a report on history and trends in sentencing. Later Mahmood will give a statement to MPs where she will say which of the recommendations she is accepting. As Rajeev Syal reports in his overnight preview story, the answer is most of them.

Government sources said [Mahmood] is expected to accept the review’s key measures including that well-behaved prisoners should be released on tag after serving a third of their sentences.

She has also accepted that those who have committed serious sexual or violent crimes could be freed to serve their sentence in the community after they have served half of their sentence.

One of Gauke’s suggestions – that the most dangerous offenders should be allowed to apply for parole earlier if they earn “credits” – has been dismissed by sources close to the justice secretary.

And here is Rajeev’s summary of the main points from the report.

Among the main recommendations, Gauke, the former Conservative justice secretary, said the government should:

-Ensure custodial sentences under 12 months are only used in exceptional circumstances.

-Extend suspended sentences to up to three years and encourage greater use of deferred sentences for low-risk offenders.

-Give courts greater flexibility to use fines and ancillary orders like travel, driving and football bans.

-Allow probation officers to adjust the level of supervision based on risk and compliance with licence conditions.

-Expand specialist domestic abuse courts to improve support for victims.

-Expand tagging for all perpetrators of violence against women and girls.

-Improve training for practitioners and the judiciary on violence against women and girls.

-Change the statutory purposes of sentencing so judges and magistrates must consider protecting victims as much as they consider punishment and rehabilitation when passing sentences.

Gauke has called for the need to increase funding and resources for the probation service, including expanding the availability of electronic monitoring equipment like tags, and warned that there will be a “public backlash” if money is not found.

The Conservatives are opposed to the plans. Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said:

By scrapping short prison sentences Starmer is effectively decriminalising crimes like burglary, theft and assault. This is a gift to criminals who will be free to offend with impunity.

But Gauke has defended his plans, saying they are needed because otherwise the government will run out of space in prisons, and the criminal justice system will break down. He told the Today programme:

Nobody, I think, wants to see a repeat of [the prisoner early release scheme – an alternative means of dealing with prison overcrowding] because that is rushed, it’s unplanned, it’s unstrategic, and so on, and it’s much better to face up to the realities, recognise where we are with the prison population and set out a plan that is strategic, that is properly prepared and gives due notice to everybody, so that we do not find ourselves in that situation.

Because if you run out of prison places, then really you are putting the whole criminal justice system at risk.

Gauke also said more community sentences could provide better value for money for the taxpayer.

I think there is a point from the perspective of the taxpayer that can be missed here. Prisons are expensive. They cost £54,000-a-year for a prison place. That money can be spent very effectively in the community, both punishing offenders and helping with rehabilitation.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes immigration figures for the year ending December 2024. The Home Office is also publishing its own quarterly figures on asylum seekers, visas and resettlement.

10am: Kent county council meets for the first time since it came under Reform UK control.

10am: Matt Hancock, the former health secretary, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry as part of its test, trace and isolate module.

10.30am: Lucy Powell, the leader of the Commons, takes questions on future Commons business.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

Around 11.30am: Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, is expected to make a Commons statement about the Gauke review of sentencing.

Noon: John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions from MSPs.

Here is the agenda for the day.

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