New Zealand government loses ground in polls as economic concerns grow

New Zealand’s National-led coalition government is losing support among voters, new polling shows, amid frustrations over the economy and deepening concern the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, the parliamentary left bloc has taken a narrow lead for the third poll in a row, enough that the opposition would be able to form a government were an election held today.

Prime minister Christopher Luxon’s favourability has also dipped to a record low.

A 1News-Verian poll shows Luxon dropped two points to 22% in the preferred prime minister stakes – his lowest result since he became leader. Labour’s Chris Hipkins rose two points to 17%.

Speaking to media on Tuesday, Luxon said he was not concerned by the results.

“The only poll that matters is 2026 when the New Zealand public will make their decision: has this government made them better off or not over that three-year period?”

The poll, conducted during the country’s politically charged Waitangi Day events, showed support for Luxon’s National party dropped three points to 34%, while his coalition partners Act had a one-point increase to 9% and New Zealand First dropped one point to 5%.

A second Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, taken between 2–4 February, also had Labour narrowly ahead of National and Luxon’s favourability drop just over two points to 24.5%.

The coalition government campaigned on promises to fix New Zealand’s economy and has introduced a wave of new policies to try to achieve this, including relaxing immigration settings to attract foreign investment and reducing public spending.

But with country in the midst of a recession and high unemployment rates, the public’s confidence in the economy is yet to bounce back.

Of those surveyed in the Verian poll, 36% felt optimistic about the economy – a 5 point drop from the December poll – while there was a three point increase in economic pessimism to 25%. Meanwhile, half of those polled felt the government was going in the wrong direction, with 39% believing it was heading in the right direction.

Luxon said he was under “no illusion” the public wanted the government to fix the economy.

“New Zealanders are expecting us to get through this economic pain and get to the other side of it, and that requires all of us to embrace growth above everything else.”

Political commentator Ben Thomas said that like many countries around the world, the government inherited a tough economic situation but its promises to lower living costs were yet to quell public malaise.

“If you run on the basis that you’re going to fix the economy, and people are still having a tough economic time a year later, it becomes harder to deliver that [promise] credibly.”

Meanwhile, Luxon’s inexperience could be affecting his popularity, Thomas said.

“He’s come on the back of two generational talents, which are John Key and Jacinda Ardern – they were uniquely skilled communicators and leaders and Luxon does suffer by comparison.”

Further, the ongoing tensions over the minor Act party’s controversial treaty principles bill, which many fear will undermine Māori rights, could be fuelling perceptions the country is headed in the wrong direction.

“New Zealanders don’t tend to like divisiveness … and I think that does contribute something to the national mood,” Thomas said.