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4 hours ago
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Predictions that adding VAT to private school fees would set off a wave of parents moving children to the state sector have been proved wrong at their first key test, according to figures from councils in England.
While critics including the former chancellor Jeremy Hunt had predicted that up to 90,000 children could flood the state sector if VAT of 20% was charged, most councils say they have seen no impact from the policy in applications to start at state secondary schools later this year.
Forecasts of widespread shortages of school places have also fallen flat, based on application figures for places in year 7, the first year of secondary school, that show more families receiving their first choice of school this year.
A government source said: “Despite all the doom-mongering and ululating from the private schools lobby, as well as their Conservative and Reform lackeys, there hasn’t been a massive exodus from private schools.
“This government will deliver for working families who want a brilliant state education for their children.”
Experts had identified the transition from primary to secondary school as the time when parents would be most likely to opt for state education after an increase in private school fees with the addition of VAT. Any shift in significant numbers would mean fewer families getting their first choice of places at state schools, and erode the £1.5bn the government expects to raise from the tax in the first year.
In London the number of families receiving their first preference of secondary school place rose by one percentage point compared with 2024, to 71.6%, while the number of applicants for places through the Pan-London admissions board fell for the second year in a row.
London Councils, which represents the capital’s 33 local authorities, said there had been “no obvious impact” from the addition of VAT on private school fees.
Surrey, which has large numbers of children in private education, recorded a dip in the proportion of families getting their first pick of schools for September. But Clare Curran, the county council’s cabinet member for children, families and lifelong learning, said: “Surrey has not seen a significant rise in the number of applications for a year 7 state school place for children currently in the independent sector compared to last year.
“For September 2025, 664 on-time applications were received from Surrey residents with children in the independent sector, compared with 608 for September 2024, a rise of 56.
“While the percentage of applicants offered their first preference school has decreased for September 2025 [80.6%] compared with 2024 [83.1%], the 2025 figure is not dissimilar to the 2023 figure of 81.3%.”
A survey of 70 local authorities outside London by the Press Association found that in 44 there had been a rise in the proportion of pupils getting their first choice compared with 2024, while two had no change and 24 reported a fall.
Two local authorities with a high proportion of privately educated children did report a fall in first choice offers, including Gloucestershire, where the offer rate fell from 86% to 81% this year. But a spokesperson said the county council “did not believe” there was any link to VAT, adding: “It’s more to do with this being another bulge year and a cohort of parents applying for schools which are not their nearest.”
In Kensington and Chelsea, the London borough with the highest proportion of children at private schools, the first preference rate fell from 72.5% to 66.7%. Catherine Faulks, the council’s lead member for family and children’s services, said: “The number of children receiving their top-choice school place fluctuates each year and there are many nuanced factors that contribute.
“We are keeping a close watch on how changes to private school VAT may impact state school admission rates. While this doesn’t present an immediate problem, some secondary schools in Kensington and Chelsea are now seeing higher levels of oversubscription.”
But in other parts of London with large numbers of children at independent schools, the proportion of families getting their first choice rose this year, including Hammersmith and Fulham, Richmond upon Thames and Wandsworth.
Kent, another local authority with many private school pupils, also reported a rise in state school first-preference offers.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has forecast that adding VAT “would lead to a 3-7% reduction in private school attendance” in the medium to long term.
