Number of people crossing Channel on small boats since Labour took office likely to pass 50,000 as Keir Starmer comes under pressure – UK politics live

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Several assertions made by senior politicians about immigration have been disputed or debunked in recent days and weeks. My colleagues Eleni Courea, Adam Bychawski and Jessica Elgot have debunked a few of them in this explainer. Here is one example:

Conservative Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said on Radio 4’s Today programme last Monday that 40% of sexual crimes in London last year were committed by foreign nationals.

The claim was sourced from the Centre for Migration Control (CMC), a thinktank and blog that describes its purpose as “controlling and reducing migration to Britain”. It is run by the Reform UK activist Robert Bates …

CMC’s claims come from the Metropolitan police’s response to a freedom of information request. The Met issued a breakdown of the number of people who had been proceeded against – ie brought before a court – for sexual offences by nationality. This does not mean they have been found guilty of committing the offence as Jenrick said. For example, there were 14,242 defendants brought to court for sexual offences at magistrates courts in England and Wales in 2024, but 8,098 convictions, according to Ministry of Justice statistics.

“Some of the data we’re seeing is very striking,” Jenrick also said. “Afghans and Eritrean nationals are 20 times more likely to be convicted of a sexual crime than a British national.” The statistic about Afghans has been repeated by Reform UK’s chair, Zia Yusuf.

This is a muddled figure that also came from the CMC, after it submitted freedom of information requests to the MoJ. It is based on population statistics from 2021 but data on offences covering the years between 2021 and 2023.

That means the statistic is likely to be based on a significant underestimate of the number of Afghan and Eritrean nationals in the UK – meaning the comparison with British rates is unlikely to be 20 times as high. Immigration to the UK from Afghanistan has risen significantly since 2021 because of the Taliban’s return to power, while Eritrean migration has also risen due to wars in Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia.

Robert Jenrick has previously been accused of stoking community divisions to fuel his own leadership ambitions. Photograph: Tayfun Salcı/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

Reform MP for Runcorn and Helsby, Sarah Pochin, told journalists yesterday that women are at risk of sexual assault and rape from small boats migrants.

During a press conference for Women for Reform, she accused illegal migrants from “predominantly Muslim” countries of having a “medieval view of women’s rights fundamentally alien to our own western values”.

Jacqui Smith, an education minister, told LBC this morning that Reform is wrong to single out small boat migrants as a threat to women’s safety.

Smith, a former home secretary, said:

No I don’t think they’re right to single those people out. They’re a problem for all the reasons that we’ve talked about. But I think that there are unfortunately … too many largely men who are responsible for violence against women, of all types.

That’s why we need to take the sort of action that this government is taking, and that’s why I hope Reform will change their position and support us in the tough legislation that we’re bringing forward to tackle that violence.

And also, of course, to ensure that we have more police on our streets, which we’re beginning to deliver, reinvigorating our neighbourhood policing teams, making sure we have the criminal justice system that will be on the side of victims and help to reduce this problem.

As we mentioned in the opening post, Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative party leader, suggested on a walkabout in Essex yesterday that “camps” should be set up for asylum seekers while their applications to remain in the UK are assessed.

Badenoch, who met anti-migrant protesters and local people in Epping high street on Monday, did not say how this would work in practice.

Kemi Badenoch doing media interviews while on a walkabout in Epping, Essex on 11 August 2025. Photograph: Lucy North/PA

Matt Vickers, the shadow Home Office minister, was asked about Badenoch’s comments on Sky News this morning.

He said the only way to solve the problem is to “end the pull factors” attracting people to come to Britain illegally and to ensure those who do arrive illegally are not allowed to stay.

Vickers said:

Kemi went down to Epping. She met the families, the community, people who are affected by these people, who daren’t send their kids down the park or let them play in the street.

Women who were worried about going home late at night in the dark, people who are really affected by these huge groups of lone men hanging around town centres in public spaces. She’s also seen the impact on businesses.

If you take away those 300 hotel rooms, the businesses that rely on that tourism all of a sudden do not have any business.

Test for Labour as figures likely to show over 50,000 migrants have crossed Channel since last July

Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of UK politics.

The number of people who have crossed the Channel on small boats since Labour took office last summer will probably pass 50,000 later today when official figures are released.

Official figures from Monday suggested 49,797 had crossed in small boats from northern France since 5 July 2024.

The prime minister, Keir Starmer, is under considerable pressure to reduce the number of people arriving on small boats across the Channel, with his promise to “smash the gangs” clearly not working,

The government has set out its plan to close asylum hotels by the end of the parliament and Starmer announced a “one in, one out” returns deal with France last month.

But there is a rising political urgency around the issue as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party continues to lead polls after attacks on Labour for failing to curb irregular migration.

Reform politicians have recently been linking sexual offences to immigration as part of the party’s “Britain is lawless” campaign, full of disputed claims.

Kemi Badenoch suggested yesterday that asylum seekers should be housed in camps which could be policed, instead of in hotels, as they currently are. We should get more detail about this proposal later today. Here is what else is on the agenda:

09.30am: New welfare statistics, including the number of universal credit claimants, will be published by the Department for Work and Pensions.

10.45am:The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is likely to face questions from journalists about the latest ONS employment data when she speaks to regional media.

The education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, will be speaking to regional media and LBC today.