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6 hours ago
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The UK’s embattled statistics agency cannot reverse a pandemic-era decision to release official data on the state of the economy before financial markets open because its creaking website could crash, it has emerged.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had sought views on whether to revert to releasing statistics – such as GDP and inflation data – at 9.30am. The releases were moved forward to 7am in March 2020 to allow investors time to digest consequential data – such as the subsequent record contraction in the economy – before the start of London stock market trading at 8am.
The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has agreed that the ONS can continue releasing its data at 7am to minimise disruption to public bodies, financial market participants, the media and members of the public that use the data and avoid overwhelming the website, according to an exchange of letters between the two bodies.
The statistics agency is under sustained pressure over the reliability of its research amid major issues with data collection after years of under-investment.
Bank of England policymakers have criticised the ONS for its failure to recover from a drop in responses to economic surveys during the pandemic, hindering the central bank’s ability to understand the level of unemployment and earnings among the employed and self-employed.
The OSR said it accepted the ONS application that the 7am release time “increases the visibility of key statistics for the public via the media, and so better serves the public good”.
“Additionally, this mitigates the risk that ONS’s website is not robust enough to manage the increased traffic that reverting to 9.30am would likely lead to, which could risk orderly access to data for users.”
It is understood that responses from the media to the consultation were divided about the shift, though City analysts were united in their opposition to the status quo, arguing that the figures should appear in office hours when they can be properly interrogated.
Almost all other UK economic data is published during typical office hours, including the Bank of England’s interest rate policy, which is released at noon.
The Bank has cited business surveys by S&P Global Market Intelligence, regularly released at 9.30am, as a rival source of data on the health of the British economy.
Chris Williamson, the firm’s chief business economist, said the City was keen for data to be published when markets were at their most “liquid” and trading was high to minimise the shock from sharp and unexpected changes.
“The ONS could take the pressure off its website by allowing other organisations to have the data under embargo.”
An exchange of emails, reported on by the Financial Times this week, showed that senior staff at the ONS were worried about a slump in responses to its labour market survey, resulting in the sample size for one estimate dropping “to only five individuals”.
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The emails were sent in October 2023 ahead of a briefing to the ONS chief, Sir Ian Diamond. In the wake of the briefing, the agency pulled publication of key labour market statistics with just one day’s notice.
The Bank’s chief economist, Huw Pill, said that, while steps taken to address issues with ONS data were welcome, “they have not yet led to an improvement and it remains uncertain whether the credibility of labour force statistics will improve”.
The defective survey on the state of the UK’s jobs market, which has been labelled “virtually unusable”, may not fixed until 2027.
A spokesperson for the ONS said it was “concentrating its resources on key statistics and services. This includes prioritising a new website that will allow users to more readily access and interpret statistics, as well as ensuring the smooth release of market-sensitive data at peak times.
“Similarly, additional resources are being deployed to boost survey responses – including more field interviewers, improved incentives for participants and the use of AI technology.”
