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The empty factories in Plattling and Straßkirchen sit just 6 miles (10km) apart but they tell two very different tales about the state of Germany’s economy.
In Plattling, an ailing paper factory closed two years ago and put 500 people out of work – a casualty of high gas prices and a symbol of the nationwide “deindustrialisation” that conservatives have blamed squarely on the Greens.
In Straßkirchen, cranes are busy assembling a battery factory that will offer 1,600 skilled jobs – a homegrown solution for a car industry that has been overtaken by Chinese competitors in the switch to electric vehicles.
Only one of the two narratives has gripped citizens in this rich and conservative corner of the south-east German state of Bavaria. “Poverty is rising, factories are letting people go – it’s all chaos,” said Silvio, a former gastronomy worker. “The Greens have been a catastrophe.”
Germany’s political enthusiasm for cutting pollution is dwindling, with growing resistance from the centre-right and far-right parties that won half of all votes cast in last Sunday’s federal election. The Greens, a coalition partner in the outgoing government that led the climate and economy ministry, experienced a small slump as young voters turned to the left.
Analysts say it is unclear if the persistent attacks on climate policy played a role in rightwing success at the ballot box, as migration and security were the main topics on the campaign trail. But cries of ideological Green “nonsense” and an “eco-dictatorship” appear to have resonated in conservative strongholds across the country.
“The [climate] orders pushed through by Berlin don’t find any support here,” said Lothar Hartmannsgruber, an optician in Straßkirchen. “People see it as invasive and patronising.”
Such views are common in the electoral district of Deggendorf, home to the Plattling paper mill. The three parties that leaned hardest into attacking climate policies – the far-right AfD, the centre-right CDU/CSU, and the market-liberal FDP – won more votes here than anywhere else in Germany. Their combined vote share was almost the same in the neighbouring district of Straubing, where BMW is building the electric battery factory, at 70%.
On a chilly Friday morning in Deggendorf town square, locals said high levels of tax and bureaucracy were threatening the Mittelstand – the mid-sized companies that form the backbone of the German economy.
The person most responsible for this, they said, was Robert Habeck, the Green climate and economy minister who became an unpopular figure after his clean heating law was torn apart by tabloids. He has also been criticised for resisting calls to extend the lifetime of nuclear power plants.
“Habeck is a failure,” said one former metalworker, who gave his last name as Hartl and said he had voted for the AfD. “Heaters now have to be ripped out, electric cars have to come in. It’s not an economy any more, it’s communism.”
A healthcare worker, who gave her last name as Hoyer, said: “Habeck is a joke figure.” She said she had voted for the conservative CSU, adding: “I hope they’ll be able to drive the economy forward and stop more companies from having to move abroad.”
A handful of voters defended the measures and said the Greens were in charge of the economy during a global pandemic and a war that sent the price of gas soaring – a fuel they had long argued should be replaced with renewables.
They also said the overall health of the economy was a mixed bag. The Dax, the German stock market index, outperformed its competitors last year even as industrial output shrank. In Deggendorf, the unemployment rate of 3.2% is well below the national average.
“We’re talking about a crisis that does not exist in such a bad way,” said Jürgen Linder, a self-employed worker in the car industry and one of the 5% of Green voters in Deggendorf.
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He said choices by some boardrooms and chief executives had led to the current situation. “If the big companies can’t put an electric car on the market that you can afford without a yearly income of €120,000, you can hardly blame it on the Green economy minister.”
Understanding whether anger at climate policy motivated rightwing voters could prove crucial to how hard the incoming government tries to stop the planet heating. An analysis found nearly three-quarters of AfD voters were sceptical of more climate action. Support among CDU/CSU voters has declined from 47% in autumn 2023 to 37%.
“These voters can be reached with a conservative, pro-climate narrative,” said Markus Kollberg, a political scientist at Humboldt University of Berlin who co-authored the research with the not-for-profit organisation Heimatwurzeln.
“Left voters are primarily concerned with the environmental and climate-related aspects of the issue,” he said. “Voters on the right care about energy prices, energy security and its impact on economic growth.”
But the election has cast doubt on how willing centre-right politicians will be to make such an argument. The Conservatives have called to overturn the clean heating law and reverse the 2035 ban on new combustion engine cars.
They will also will be vulnerable to attacks from the emboldened AfD if they compromise with their probable new coalition partners, the centre-left SPD.
But the conservatives’ fortunes have also been boosted by voters shocked by the rapid rise of the AfD – and who do not want them to backslide on the climate promises they have made.
Sebastian Völkl, who runs a restaurant and catering firm in Straßkirchen, said he voted for the conservatives “with a heavy heart” after having previously supported an environmental party that was too small to be represented in the federal parliament.
“I know lots of people who voted for the CDU/CSU to get a strong centre,” Völkl said. “Clever people have put environmental protection into the background – unfortunately – because we fear for our democracy.”
