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Starmer faces Badenoch at PMQs
Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question at PMQs.
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Starmer faces Badenoch at PMQs
Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question at PMQs.
Internal modelling says NHS on course to miss hospital operations waiting time target, report says
Health is set to be one of the biggest winners from the spending review. But today the Times is running a story saying that even with extra money, the NHS is not set to meet a key performance target. In their story, Chris Smyth and Steven Swinford report:
Starmer’s central promise on the NHS is to hit a routine operations target of treating 92 per cent of patients within 18 weeks, a goal that has not been met for a decade.
But The Times understands that internal Department of Health modelling shows that the NHS is on course to hit only about 80 per cent by the end of the parliament. Officials say the figures can only come close to 92 per cent by using “implausible” and “over-optimistic” assumptions.
The NHS is expected to get a 2.8% real terms increase. But the Times quotes Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confedertion as saying:
There are fears that this uplift will not be enough to achieve all the government’s manifesto pledges, including hitting the stretching 92 per cent 18 weeks elective waiting time target by March 2029.
Currently, only around 60% of routine operations take place within 18 weeks.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has left Downing Street for the Commons.
Keir Starmer has been tweeting about the spending review this morning. Here are his messages.
My government was elected on a mandate for change.
Our first job was to stabilise the economy and public finances.
Now, we move into a new chapter to deliver on our promise of change.
We’re investing in Britain’s renewal, so you and your family are better off.
I am determined to make the dream of homeownership a reality.
We are fixing the housing crisis with the biggest boost to affordable housing in a generation – to build the 1.5 million new homes this country needs.
Green party MPs and activists staged a protest outside parliament today saying the government should use the spending review to announce a wealth tax. In a post on social media, Adrian Ramsay, the party’s co-leader, said:
We expect the Chancellor to take another axe to public spending today: decline by design from a govt that refuses to tax wealth to properly fund our overstretched public services & support the most vulnerable. We need to invest in a secure & fairer future. #TaxExtremeWealth
Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA
At Westminster it is assumed that Kemi Badenoch is the party leader most likely to lose her job. But today the Herald is running a story by Andrew Learmonth, its political editor, saying some senior SNP figures would like to replace John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister. Learmonth says:
Senior SNP figures held a secret meeting on Monday night to discuss removing John Swinney as party leader, The Herald has learned, following last week’s defeat in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse byelection.
One of the 25 attendees said the first minister had two weeks to come up with a new strategy on independence — or risk facing a leadership challenge at the SNP conference in October.
UN human rights panel criticises Chagos Islands deal, as Mauritius says it will cut taxes with money from UK
We’ve got PMQs before the spending review, and there is a good chance that Kemi Badenoch will ask Keir Starmer about the Chagos Islands. There are two stories around this morning she could use.
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Mauritius has said that it is using the revenue it is getting from the UK under the Chagos Islands deal to cut taxes and reduce the national debt. Under the sovereignty transfer agreement, the UK will pay Mauritius £90m a year to rent Diego Garcia, the site of a major military base, for another 99 years. As Tony Diver reports in the Telegraph, Mauritians have been told they will benefit directly.
Navin Ramgoolam, the Mauritian prime minister, has now announced that the money paid by the UK will help Mauritius cut taxes, so that 81 per cent of people in the African island nation will not pay any income tax …
The Mauritian reforms were announced in a budget speech by Mr Ramgoolam on Wednesday, when he said that the UK’s Chagos payments for the next three years would be used to help pay off the country’s national debt, which has reached 90 per cent of GDP.
He said that to reach a long-term debt level of 60 per cent, the government would adjust “both the expenditure side and the revenue side of the budget”, and raise the minimum salary before an employee pays income tax to £1,774 a year.
The Conservatives are opposed to the deal, and now they can argue that Keir Starmer is cutting taxes for people in Mauritius but not in the UK. (The population of Mauritius is just over one million, and so £90m a year goes a lot further there than here.)
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A panel of experts appointed by the UN Human Rights Council has criticised the deal on the grounds that it does not fully respect the rights of Chagossians. In their statement, they say:
By maintaining a foreign military presence of the United Kingdom and the United States on Diego Garcia and preventing the Chagossian people from returning to Diego Garcia, the agreement appears to be at variance with the Chagossians’ right to return, which also hinders their ability to exercise their cultural rights in accessing their ancestral lands from which they were expelled.
The Conservatives are not always minded to side with foreign human rights experts criticising the UK government, but on this occasion they have. Priti Patel, the shadow foreign secretary, said:
We have been warning from the start that this deal is bad for British taxpayers and bad for the Chagossian people.
Now even the United Nations is saying the very same.
Labour has completely ignored this community from the get-go, and failed to consult with them at every step of the way.
Shelter welcomes extra funding in spending review as 'watershed moment' for housing emergency
Shelter, the housing charity, has warmly welcomed the overnight announcement that the spending review will include £39bn for affordable housing. Mairi MacRae, director of campaigns and policy at the charity, said:
This increased investment is a watershed moment in tackling the housing emergency. It’s a huge opportunity to reverse decades of neglect and start a bold new chapter for housing in this country. To truly tackle rising homelessness, it must come alongside a clear target for delivering social rent homes.
For too long, past governments allowed thousands of social homes to be lost each year, while funnelling public money into so called ‘affordable homes’ which are priced far out of reach for many. The result has been record homelessness, and families, young people, and key workers priced out of their communities.
Social homes are the only genuinely affordable homes by design with rents tied to local incomes and around two thirds lower than private rents. They keep communities together, save public money and provide the stability people need to thrive. To ensure this funding tackles homelessness at its root, the government must now set a target for how many social rent homes it will deliver through this programme.
But Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation thinktank, is sceptical. She posted this on Bluesky.
News this morning dominated by money for affordable housing. The TOTAL funding of £39bn over ten years is being completed to the EXTRA capital investment by this government over five years. I’m reserving judgement on whether housing is a winner until we see more detail.
Lib Dems call for £2 bus fare cap in England to be restored
One of the more popular decisions taken by the last Conservative government was capping bus fares in England at £2. The policy was introduced at the start of 2023, but the government did not commit to funding it permanently and it was only due to last until the end of 2024.
When Labour came to office, it said that a new £3 cap would apply – but just until the end of 2025.
Last night LBC reported that this will be extended at least until March 2027.
The Liberal Democrats say the cap should be restored to £2. Paul Kohler, the Lib Dem transport spokesperson, said:
Household budgets are still really feeling the squeeze, so many will be really disappointed to see that the government is moving to make the bus fare hike permanent.
This will hit those who rely on public transport to get around to their local high street or to work and school in the pocket. People have been telling them they got this wrong, but Labour clearly isn’t listening.
Meanwhile, vital local bus services are in a death spiral, with rural communities particularly badly hit as routes are slashed. The government should be heeding Liberal Democrat calls to scrap the bus tax and bring the cap back to its previous level.
In Wales politcians from almost all parties have been complaining for years about the UK government’s decision to categorise HS2 as a project for England and Wales, even though the line does not go through Wales at all. Treating it as a project that nevertheless benefit Wales means Wales does not get equivalent money for its own infrastructure, under the Barnett formula.
According to a report by ITV Cymru, Wales will get £445m for rail in the spending review. ITV quotes a Welsh Labour source as saying:
This investment is more than Wales would have had so far had HS2 been Barnettised. It will make a massive difference economically and politically.
Reeves and Cooper says Border Security Command to get funding boost worth up to £280m a year by 2029
Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, was the last minister to settle in the spending review negotiatons and there have been reports that her talks with Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, got acrimonious. The police have claimed the financial settlement they have been offered is not high enough.
But Cooper and Reeves have put on a united front in the Sun, where they have both put their names to a joint article saying there will be a significant increase in spending on border security. They say:
We need to go much further and faster to get one step ahead of the tactics used by small boat gangs.
That is why we will boost investment to secure our borders, with up to £280m per year in the Border Security Command by 2028/29.
With this funding we will invest in new specialist investigators, new technology and cutting-edge surveillance equipment to disrupt and destroy this criminality.
The Sun says £580m is being spent over three years on border security, with some of the money funding drones to monitor small boats in the Channel.
Trump administration condemns decision by UK and others to sanction far-right Israeli ministers
The US government has condemned the decision by the UK and four other countries to sanction two far-right Israeli ministers.
In a post on X, Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said:
The United States condemns the sanctions imposed by the governments of United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, New Zealand, and Australia on two sitting members of the Israeli cabinet. These sanctions do not advance U.S.-led efforts to achieve a ceasefire, bring all hostages home, and end the war.
We reject any notion of equivalence: Hamas is a terrorist organization that committed unspeakable atrocities, continues to hold innocent civilians hostage, and prevents the people of Gaza from living in peace.
We remind our partners not to forget who the real enemy is. The United States urges the reversal of the sanctions and stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel.
This is a rare example of the Trump administration and the UK government disagreeing publicly over an issue. While the two governments are worlds apart politically, Keir Starmer has invested a lot of time in trying to develop a good relationship with Donald Trump and he has been reluctant to criticise almost anything the Trump regime has done, arguing that getting on with the White House is in the national interest.
Five charts that explain background to spending review decisions
When it comes to the public finances, graphs normally explain far better than words. Richard Partington has five charts explaining the context for the choices Rachel Reeves is making.
Good morning. The government plans to be spending almost £1.4tn in 2026-27, rising to almost £1.5tr in 2028-29. Those annual limits are already agreed. Today, when Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, stands up at 12.30pm to present the spending review, she will explain how she has decided to divvy up that money between government departments over the next three years.
This is not a budget, and she will not be announcing changes to tax policy. But it will feel like a budget because, like a budget, it will involve decisions that affect the public services people rely upon. And it is bound to intensify speculation about whether taxes will have to go up in the next budget, in the autumn.
Public spending is hideously complicated, and Reeves needs a clear, simple narrative that will land with the public at large. We know what it is because the Treasury sent out a press release last night with words from the statement where Reeves will sum up what she is trying to achieve. She will say:
This government is renewing Britain. But I know too many people in too many parts of the country are yet to feel it.
This government’s task – my task – and the purpose of this Spending Review – is to change that. To ensure that renewal is felt in people’s everyday lives, their jobs, their communities.
So that people can see a doctor when when they need one. Know that they are secure at work. And feel safe on their local high street …
I have made my choices. In place of chaos, I choose stability. In place of decline, I choose investment. In place of retreat, I choose national renewal.
These are my choices. These are this government’s choices. These are the British people’s choices.
The government differentiates between current, day-to-day spending (“resource” spending, in Treasury jargon) and capital spending. In so far as Reeves has “good news” to announce, much of it is in the capital spending area, because she changed her fiscal rules last year to allow more borrowing for infrastructure projects. That is why she is saying “In place of decline, I choose investment”, not “I choose spending”. Some government departments will face real-terms spending cuts.
But there is an obvious political problem with this, well summarised by John McDonnell, shadow chancellor when Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader, in this comment to the Financial Times.
Capital spend takes years to produce political results, while cuts in revenue spending on services like council services are felt adversely quickly.
It is easy to promise national renewal, but it is a lot harder to make people believe it is happening. Today’s decisions will have a big effect on what voters do end up concluding about this, but it will take a while to know for sure what that effect will be.
Here is Aamna Modhin’s assessment of what to expect in the spending review in her First Edition briefing.
And here is our overnight preview story, by Kiran Stacey, focusing on the proposal to spend £39bn on affordable housing.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet, where Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will be briefing colleagues on what is in the spending review.
Noon: Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
12.30pm: Reeves makes a statement to MPs about the spring statement.
4pm: The Institute for Government thinktank holds a briefing on the spring statement.
4.15pm: The National Police Chiefs’ Council gives its response to the spending review.
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