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In 1983, the CIA determined that the most crucial commodity in the Gulf was its desalinated potable water.
Although the loss of a single plant could be handled, “successful attacks on several plants in the most dependent countries could generate a national crisis that could lead to panic flights from the country and civil unrest”. And the greatest threat to the region’s water supply? “Iran.”
That’s why, four decades later, the world held its breath on Saturday when Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, accused the US of “a blatant and desperate crime” by attacking a desalination plant on the island of Qeshm, in the strait of Hormuz. “The US set this precedent, not Iran,” he said.
The US denied responsibility for the attack. But the next day, on the other side of the Gulf, Bahrain announced one of its own desalination plants had been hit. The alleged culprit: “Iranian aggression.”
It looked like the region, its cities and its industries, was poised to unravel in a frenzy of tit-for-tat assaults on critical water infrastructure. But then the attacks on desalination plants stopped. Why?
Potable water has always been a scarce commodity in the Gulf. Rainfall in the Middle East is low and highly variable, and most countries lack large permanent rivers to fulfil their water needs.
Historically, the region had simply coped, drawing from what limited groundwater supplies they had. But with the growth of the oil industry from the 1950s onwards, demand soon outstripped supply, aquifers were spoiled, and the region’s fast developing countries were forced to turn to desalination – turning seawater into drinking water – for their water needs.
According to the latest data, 70% of Saudi Arabia’s drinking water comes from desalination plants; in Oman the figure is 86%; the United Arab Emirates, 42%; and in Kuwait, 90%. Even Israel, which has access to the Jordan river, relies on five large coastal desalination plants for half its potable water.
Collectively, the Middle East accounts for roughly 40% of global desalinated water production, providing a combined desalination capacity of 28.96m cubic metres of water, every single day.
“In several Persian Gulf states, modern cities would simply not function without it,” said Nima Shokri, the director of the Institute of Geo-Hydroinformatics at the Hamburg University of Technology.
In 2026, just as in 1983, observers have pointed out that this crucial structural weak point can be used against its Arab neighbours. “Targeting desalination plants could quickly create water shortages in several Persian Gulf states,” Shokri said.
“Many cities depend on a small number of large coastal plants, meaning a successful strike could disrupt drinking water supplies within days. Unlike oil facilities, these plants cannot easily be replaced or repaired quickly. In extreme cases, governments could be forced to ration water for entire urban populations.”
Damage to desalination plants would also have environmental consequences. The Conflict and Environment Observatory noted that attacks could lead to the release of chemicals including sodium hypochlorite, ferric chloride and sulfuric acid.
But since Sunday’s drone strike in Bahrain, no more desalination plants have been attacked. Shokri suggested the decision could be “strategic restraint”. “Desalination plants are critical civilian infrastructure and attacking them risks severe humanitarian consequences,” he said. “Escalating strikes on water systems could trigger international condemnation and potentially widen the conflict.”
Although less reliant on desalination, Iran, too, has its problems with water. For years, Iran has been struggling with a drought that, experts agree, has been made far more severe by human-caused climate breakdown.
“Iran already faces severe water stress from drought, over-extraction of groundwater, and declining river flows,” Shokri said. Retaliatory attacks on its own water infrastructure could worsen its difficulties. “Damage to reservoirs, pumping stations or treatment plants could compound existing shortages.”
In 1983, the CIA noted that Tehran had promised its Arab neighbours it would not attack their desalination plants. Whether that promise will continue to hold four decades later is uncertain.
On Tuesday, after the US secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, threatened the “most intense day of strikes” of the war so far, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said Iran would adopt an “eye for an eye” approach to warfare.
“If they initiate war on infrastructure, we will undoubtedly target their infrastructure,” he said.
