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Hope has rarely felt so fragile, or so inadequate. A moment long sought and prayed for will nonetheless be met with fear and apprehension as well as joy by Palestinians in the wasteland that is Gaza and among the traumatised families of Israeli hostages.
After more than 15 months of war, which has left tens of thousands dead and almost 2 million struggling to survive, US officials and others reported that a ceasefire and hostage-release deal has been reached. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said there were still “unresolved clauses”, though his cabinet was expected to vote on it on Thursday morning. They should back it. The broad outlines of this agreement have long been clear. The cost of the delay is unbearable. Since it was first mooted, thousands more Palestinians and an unknown number of Israeli hostages taken in the Hamas raids of 7 October 2023 have been killed. Last week, research in the Lancet medical journal suggested that the death toll recorded by Gazan health officials was 40% too low, with an estimated 64,260 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces by last June.
Yet that is all the more reason to welcome, implement, sustain and build upon an agreement. Next Monday’s US presidential transition from Joe Biden to Donald Trump created the necessary momentum. Mr Netanyahu, who has sought to defer the political reckoning for 7 October as well as the corruption charges he faces, has eagerly anticipated Mr Trump’s return. The president-elect reportedly played hardball with the Israeli leader: he did not want to begin his second term with the conflict ongoing. Hamas did not want to wait for a worse outcome.
But while Mr Trump predictably claimed the credit, the progress is less a tribute to him than an indictment of Mr Biden’s failure – and a reminder that Mr Netanyahu and the Israeli right expect rewards from Mr Trump down the line. Shifting domestic politics have also made the prime minister less concerned about threats to quit from Itamar Ben-Gvir, an extremist coalition partner who boasts that he blocked previous attempts to reach a deal: so much for the Israeli prime minister’s complaints that Hamas was the obstacle.
The agreement reportedly involves a gradual release of 33 Israeli hostages, including children, women, the elderly and sick, and up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, alongside a partial Israeli troop withdrawal in a first phase lasting several weeks. This should also see a surge in urgently needed aid. Reportedly, there could be 600 trucks a day – a vast increase, but still woefully inadequate. Even if this materialises and lasts, Israel is due to withdraw cooperation with Unrwa, the UN relief agency for Palestinians, within days. No other entity has its capacity to deliver aid in Gaza.
After 16 days, talks would begin on a second phase involving the return of other hostages in return for a complete Israeli military withdrawal. The problems with this plan are obvious. The ceasefire may not hold. November 2023’s deal didn’t. Agreeing phase two will be extremely difficult. There is no agreement on what would come after that in Gaza, and who would oversee it.
Last May, the UN estimated that it would cost $40bn and take 16 years to reconstruct Gaza. Much more has since been destroyed. Any tentative sense of relief is shadowed by past suffering, and fears for the future. And yet, when matters are so desperate, a deal is still a step forward which must be embraced and built upon.
