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4 hours ago
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A settled British relationship with the European Union has become an increasingly pressing part of Britain’s unfinished national business. Labour came into office promising a welcome post-Brexit reset with Europe. As a result, there have been some useful changes. Yet the reset remains more performative than substantive.
In the material world, Britain has not yet moved a single inch – or, if you prefer, a single centimetre – closer to the more constructive trading relationship that should be at any reset’s core. But that may be about to change. Not before time.
Two powerful dynamics are driving the need for a new deal with Europe. The first is security. In an unstable world, European nations all know they are stronger together than apart. The security backing required to support Ukraine’s independence, and to resist further Russian threats, is self-evident, as is the need for European nations to carry more of their own security and defence burden.
The second dynamic is economic. The UK economy is significantly smaller because of Brexit. GDP is still expected to reduce by 4% a year in this decade as a result. Lost growth in goods and services has caused a £23bn quarterly hit to exports. All this has happened when European economies are flatlining. British businesses, communities, households and workers would all benefit from a major trade and financial rebuild with the EU. So would those in the EU.
Public opinion now consistently regrets Brexit, and even favours rejoining the EU, although Britain remains deeply divided on that radical option. But party politics, and the media, still make it difficult to debate any aspect of Britain’s relationship with the EU in the mature way required. This trivialisation of Britain’s problems has become increasingly harmful, especially on the economic front.
Two speeches this week suggest things may be changing. Neither of them was Labour’s work. One, Kemi Badenoch’s speech on Thursday, lacked detail and was characteristically cryptic. However, for any Conservative leader to say it was mistaken to announce that the UK would leave Europe without a plan for growth outside the EU is both significant and a first. It may open the door for a Conservative reassessment. But don’t hold your breath.
In the other, the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, called for Britain to join the customs union by 2030 as part of a larger deal with Europe. This was a genuinely significant speech, the first by any major UK party leader on Europe since the general election to be forward-looking and to put detail on the otherwise vague language of “reset”.
Joining the customs union would boost trade by eliminating most taxes on imports and exports with EU member states. It would place Britain behind a European tariff wall with the rest of the world. It would help to align rules which, as Sir Ed pointed out, mean that a UK air cargo company currently has to service its planes in the US rather than in Europe. And it would reduce some of the red tape created by Britain’s own post-Brexit regulations.
These two speeches put the ball in Labour’s court. Britain has damaged itself long enough. It is time to rebuild meaningful working and trading relations with Europe. This does not have to mean rejoining the EU. But it does mean recognising where our security and our prosperity both lie. Britain’s prime minister must stand up and be counted. Bring it on.
