The Guardian view on rising youth unemployment: regional leaders as well as ministers must take action | Editorial

Launching a review into unemployment and economic inactivity among young people in December, the former health secretary Alan Milburn described the situation as a “national outrage”, and suggested that a “coalition of the concerned” would be needed to turn things around for the 16- to 24-year-olds known as Neets (not in education, employment or training). The latest figures, showing another increase in the final quarter of last year, to 957,000, underline the scale of the problem.

The review is evidence that ministers are paying attention. The “youth guarantee” in the autumn budget means that £820m will be spent on paid work placements for 18- to 21-year-olds. But further bold reforms are needed if young adults are to be enabled to flourish.

Several themes are clear. One is the rising prevalence of illness and disability, and the lack of a reliable system of work-based help. Positive results from a programme known as Individual Placement and Support should lead to a wider rollout of a resource shared by employers and workers that is somewhat similar to occupational health.

But the role of illness and disability should not be overstated – as it often is by those with an axe to grind about working-age benefits. The roughly a quarter of Neets who are inactive for health reasons need support because the consequences of inactivity are harmful. But they must not be blamed. While illness-linked benefit claims from young people are concerning – between 2019 and 2024, they grew by 24% to 530,000 – the bigger challenge is how to engage non-claimants. One sensible step would be to widen eligibility for the youth guarantee, which is currently restricted to 18- to 21-year-olds on benefits. Work capability assessments should also be improved, and linked up with workplace support.

Another issue is pay, with economists divided as to whether recent rises to the minimum wage rates for younger workers, combined with higher employer national insurance contributions, have incentivised businesses to hire older people instead. Higher pay for young adults is obviously desirable, given cost of living pressures and a growing sense of generational unfairness around house prices and student debt. But the dismaying trend of rising youth unemployment means that ministers should tread carefully.

New educational opportunities as well as jobs are needed. The Resolution Foundation has stressed the need for enforcement of the school leaving age of 18. Currently, too many 16- and 17-year-olds drop out with nothing else to do. A lack of GCSE grades of 4 or above is a key risk factor for becoming Neet, and the proportion of disadvantaged pupils failing to achieve any GCSE passes rose from 5.1% in 2021 to 7.5% in 2024. Meanwhile T-levels have not delivered the hoped-for upgrade of vocational learning.

The Social Mobility Commission argues that “left behind” young people are overlooked by approaches to mobility that emphasise pathways to elite careers. It advocates regionally differentiated, place-based schemes in preference to a uniform national approach. It is surely right that while the government has a crucial role in providing funding and oversight, councils and mayoral authorities are better placed to work with local employers.

The situation is not hopeless. The number of Neets has gone up and down before. But ministers urgently need a plan. The risks of lifelong marginalisation for young people who neither study nor work are simply too high.

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