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Palestinians are returning home to northern Gaza, though few of their homes still stand. Their hospitals, schools and other basic infrastructure are destroyed. For some there are tearful reunions; others search for the bodies of their loved ones. They seek hope amid the rubble of their former lives.
Yet new threats loom. Israel and the United Nations are in a standoff over the future of Unwra, the relief agency for Palestinians. An Israeli law ending all cooperation with the agency is due to come into force on Thursday – just as desperately needed aid is finally surging into Gaza. Aid experts say no other entity has the capacity to provide its residents with the long-term support needed.
The second issue is the endurance of the ceasefire and hostage release deal. Moving to a second phase – in which Israel is supposed to completely withdraw, and Hamas is supposed to disarm – will be far more difficult. Meanwhile, there are concerns about the Israeli assault on Jenin, in the occupied West Bank, which Israeli officials have described as a shift in the aims of the war. In Lebanon, Israeli forces have shot dead 26 people protesting their continued presence; the deadline for their withdrawal under that ceasefire deal has been extended until 18 February.
The new threat, however, is Donald Trump’s suggestion this weekend that he would like to “clean out that whole thing”, with a million and a half Palestinians leaving Gaza temporarily or long term, possibly for Jordan or Egypt. Given their history of forced displacements, Palestinians have no reason to believe that they would ever return. This sounds like another Nakba. On Monday, the US president pushed the idea again, and Indonesia has reportedly been mooted as an alternative destination: this is more than a passing thought. The president affected concern for Palestinians, saying that they could live somewhere safer and “more comfortable”. They have made their horror clear. Gift-wrapping forcible removal does not alter the fact that it would be a war crime.
These repugnant comments are music to the ears of Israel’s far right. They may be intended primarily to help Benjamin Netanyahu keep coalition partners on board. The Israeli prime minister – due to meet Mr Trump as soon as next week – has spurned plans for “the day after” in Gaza, largely because he has sought to defer such a day. Ejecting Palestinians from the north would be far more difficult now that hundreds of thousands are returning. Egypt and Jordan do not want to take them for political and security reasons. Other powerful players have made clear their opposition – and Mr Trump still hopes for Saudi-Israeli normalisation in a broader regional deal. His administration might hope, however, that sufficient pressure on aid might result in a smaller transfer within the region, or perhaps a larger one elsewhere.
Mr Trump’s proposal does not need to be workable to be damaging. It buoys Israel’s extreme right – already spurred on by the rescinding of US sanctions on violent West Bank settlers – and further dehumanises Palestinians. Mr Trump appears to view them as an obstacle to real estate development and his long-discussed grand bargain, rather than human beings with a right to a say in their lives. The US commitment to a two-state solution has often appeared largely theoretical. But it still matters. And Palestinians still need a long‑term future in a state of their own.
