The Observer view: Europe must now come of age as a global player | Observer editorial

Britain and Europe are together facing a watershed moment, a turning point, a second Zeitenwende, a paradigm shift, a new world order. Regardless of which of these overused phrases best describes the dramatic shifts unfolding since Donald Trump began his second US presidential term in January, politicians, diplomats and analysts all agree: nothing will be the same again. The key question now is what, in practical terms, Europe and Britain can and will do to meet this challenge. Is this Europe’s moment, when it finally comes of age as a global player? Or will the EU and its close neighbours collectively fail to rise to the occasion, condemning their citizens to an era of domination by bigger, rapacious and more determined powers?

Donald Trump is in the process of attempting, rashly, to do three extraordinary things. First, he is trying to force Ukraine, which has spent more than three years under murderous assault, to accept a “peace deal” on inimical terms dictated by himself and the aggressor, Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Second, in a stunning reversal of US policy, he is seeking a rapprochement with Moscow that includes re-establishing full political and diplomatic relations, lifting sanctions and launching joint economic partnerships. Third, he is telling Europeans they must henceforth defend themselves, that the US, in effect, is no longer a loyal, reliable partner or even necessarily a friend, and that Nato, for 76 years the solid bedrock of transatlantic security, is dispensable.

European leaders, with some exceptions on the political fringes, are united in their alarm at all three of these unwise, irrational and dangerous interventions. At the same time, most accept that even if Trump vanished entirely – a desirable but unlikely eventuality – a change in the balance of US-Europe relations is inescapable and overdue. In a national address last week, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, summed up the position well. “Europe’s future should not be decided in Washington or Moscow,” he said. “The war in Ukraine… continues with the same intensity [but] the US, our ally, has changed its position.” As a result, Europe was entering a new era of self-reliance.

Accused of appeasing Putin in 2022, Macron, like many others, has learned better since. Now he warns that Russian imperialist aggression “knows no borders”, directly threatening France and Europe. Macron is not just talk. He has shown imaginative leadership, producing a tentative plan for a staged ceasefire that has Ukrainian support, lobbying, flattering and correcting Trump to his face in the Oval Office, and promoting an Anglo-French proposal to deploy a European “assurance force” in Ukraine composed of a so-called coalition of the willing.

In a week that saw repeated recourse to another overused phrase – the need for Europe to “step up” – Germany surprised many with a positive leap into the future. A country that nurtures visceral horror of debt announced a spectacular U-turn of its own – the amending of its Basic Law to permit multibillion-euro investments in defence and national infrastructure. Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democrat who held off the far-right to win last month’s federal election, has a reputation as a deficit hawk and fiscal conservative. Not any more. And he has gone further even than Macron in urging Europe’s “independence” from the US and vowing ongoing, expanded military aid for Kyiv. Other European leaders, notably Donald Tusk, have “stepped up” in commendable ways. Poland’s prime minister is in an unenviable position. A strong believer in the transatlantic alliance, he, like so many others, must now feel utterly betrayed by Trump. Nato is a crucial shield for Poland, as it is for the three neighbouring Baltic republics. Now its removal or weakening is threatened.

Keir Starmer also recognises the historic nature of this moment, and has risen to meet it. He has worked assiduously and carefully to restrain Trump’s worst instincts. His evident contempt, displayed in the Commons last week, for the ignorant comments of US vice-president JD Vance about “random countries” showed he is not afraid to push back, too. Starmer’s collaboration with EU leaders is a very welcome post-Brexit development that should be extended beyond defence and security. Yet like them, the UK faces daunting hurdles. Although they now recognise the necessity, their shared, chronic dependence on the US will be hard to break.

These challenges – on reducing Europe’s reliance on America, boosting its defences and maintaining support for Ukraine – were the focus of last week’s emergency EU summit. As is often the case in Brussels, the results were mixed. New overall defence spending of €800bn (£670bn) was agreed. But whether it ever materialises will depend on national governments’ willingness to borrow. The usual divisions were apparent; Hungary blocked a joint statement on Ukraine. Within Nato, most member states, like Britain, are now committing to higher spending. Non-EU countries, such as Norway, are piling in, too. Oslo is belatedly yet commendably doubling its aid to Kyiv.

Europe is stepping up. In time, if it perseveres and its leaders keep their promises, it will be better able to deter Russia alone – and survive in a reordered, more hostile world. But how effective Europe can be in rescuing Ukraine in the short term from a developing Trump-Putin axis is in serious doubt. Trump still refuses to provide Kyiv with meaningful postwar security guarantees. His suspension of military aid and mapping and intelligence assistance is encouraging Russia to intensify attacks. More civilians are dying each day because of Trump’s treachery. Each day, Ukraine is further brutalised and degraded. A just peace looks further away than ever.