The parallels between Libya’s revolution and Syria’s are stark. But they need not be prophetic | Najla Mohammed El Mangoush

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In December, the world watched in awe as Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria imploded. But as Syria rejoices, I bear a warning: we cannot let Syria’s power vacuum fester into another civil war, as the international community did in Libya.

As Libya’s first female foreign minister, I am painfully aware of what is at stake. When images of our own dictator’s dead body were broadcast to the world in 2011, we believed Libya had been liberated. But the euphoria of revolutions often gives way to darker realities.

Muammar Gaddafi’s death unleashed mayhem, as clashes erupted between the Libyan National Army and the Government of National Accord. Chaos deepened as warlords seized territories and groups such as al-Qaida exploited Libya’s agony. In Benghazi, once a symbol of hope, Salafist groups with extremist ideologies seized control, poisoning the nation’s political veins.

Now living in Britain, I am a product of the geostrategic game that forced me into exile. But my story is far from unique. More than 400,000 people have been displaced and Libya has become a gateway for 90% of Mediterranean crossings into Europe.

When the revolution began, leaders such as Barack Obama, France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Britain’s David Cameron, along with Nato, were quick to offer support and present themselves as champions of the Libyan people. However, their superficial actions failed to address the country’s long-term needs.

Militias were left unchecked, institutions were weakened and the nation descended into chaos. The disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programme initiated in late 2011 was poorly executed. Instead of fostering stability, it further destabilised Libya, sparking attacks on civilians abroad. Over time, the nation’s rich cultural heritage and infrastructure were decimated, leaving scars on the nation’s history which still bleed today.

Obama has since called the failure to plan Libya’s aftermath his “worst mistake” in office, while Britain’s public inquiry condemned the absence of a coherent post-Gaddafi strategy.

Syria could face the same fate. Already, the country is oscillating between peace and chaos. Rival rebel factions are vying for power, and the interim government is being led by a “reformed” commander with ties to Islamic State and al-Qaida.

Meanwhile, the international community lacks a strategy for addressing the aftermath. Weapons and ideologies from various nations are flooding into the region, risking the escalation of extremism and deepening divisions.

For Syrians to rebuild their nation, they must first unite around a shared vision for its future. Institutions need to be restored with a focus on long-term functionality, and the people must have the space to control their own agenda. Key factors such as monitored DDR programmes, reintegration of militias, and meaningful reforms must be prioritised.

With Russian troops withdrawing, the west has a rare opportunity to act – not as another foreign power, but as a stabilising force offering an alternative. This means embracing a “no harm” approach, offering conscientious oversight rather than force. History shows that, with thoughtful assistance, war-torn nations such as postwar South Korea and Japan can become stable, productive societies.

Part and parcel of this recovery plan must involve empowering communal actors with deep local understanding and legitimacy. After all, their voices carry far more insight and credibility than any western bureaucrat’s decree ever could.

Importantly, this means the west must start listening to regional and local voices instead of assuming it knows best. After all, this arrogance is what caused the largest interventionist mistake in recent history. When President Biden shambolically withdrew troops from Afghanistan, he failed to ensure the country had the intelligence, infrastructure and willpower to resist the Taliban, who had long offered an alternative to the US-backed government.

As the Muslim World League’s (MWL) secretary general, Mohammad bin Abdulkarim al-Issa, explains, the west failed its nation building exercises in Afghanistan because it never anchored its policies or interventions in the religious fundamentals that most of its population understands and respects. This mistake allowed the Taliban to swiftly regain control of the country and enact the harshest laws against women in modern times.

Already, a spokesperson for the new Syrian government, Obaida Arnaout, has received widespread backlash for claiming women could not hold positions in government due to their “biological compositions”. In response to this and other measures enacted by the Taliban and proposed by Libya, an international conference on Girls’ Education in Muslim Communities took place in Islamabad this month.

The event, organised by the MWL, brought together figures such as Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai and Unicef to tackle the extremist ideologies that suppress women’s rights – issues central to Syria’s path forward. The outcomes of this conference, which included the adoption of the Islamabad Declaration and the launch of a global campaign to promote women’s rights in the Islamic world, could inform strategies for fostering resilience in post-conflict Syria, ensuring that ideals such as human rights are grounded in a counterextremist framework, not propped up by western forces.

The parallels between Libya and Syria are stark, but they need not be prophetic. As the dust settles in Syria, the world must resist the temptation of passive optimism and commit to active stewardship.

We cannot let Syria become another cautionary tale of a nation left to crumble under the weight of global apathy and splintered leadership.

  • Najla Mohammed El Mangoush was Libya’s first female foreign minister

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International | Politik|