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7 hours ago
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Last month, people in a small village in Kenya looked to the sky and saw a red glowing ring slowly descending. The half-tonne piece of metal crashed into a nearby thicket with a loud bang, leaving them shaken and perplexed. What was the mysterious object? Was it an alien spacecraft? Sadly, the truth of the matter was much more prosaic: it was a piece of space junk.
The Kenya Space Agency identified the object as a separation ring from a launch rocket. Such objects are usually designed to burn up as they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere or to fall over unpopulated areas, leading the agency to declare this as “an isolated case”.
However, this was not a one-off incident. Last year alone, we saw a large fragment from a Chinese space mission fall over southern California; a piece of space junk fell through a two-storey home in Florida, confirmed by Nasa to have originated from the International Space Station; and several sizeable fragments of a SpaceX capsule were found on a Canadian farm. The Florida family is now suing Nasa for damages in a case that could set a legal precedent for who is responsible.
Even more concerning than large space detritus crashing to Earth – if this is possible –is the accumulation of small debris in the lower orbit that could collide with larger objects such as satellites. Over the past 60 years of space activities, more than 6,050 space launches have resulted in roughly 56,450 tracked objects in orbit. Only 8% of these objects are active satellites, the rest is junk.
The Kessler syndrome (named after former Nasa scientist Donald J Kessler) describes a scenario in which the volume of debris in Earth’s orbit reaches a critical threshold, triggering a cascade effect where collisions generate even more debris, which causes even more collisions. More than 560 in-orbit fragmentation events have been recorded since 1961, according to the European Space Agency, and the risks are intensifying.
In June 2024, a defunct Russian satellite broke up into almost 200 pieces of debris, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station to take cover and prepare to evacuate in their spacecraft. Should the Earth’s orbit become unusable, this would threaten our ability to monitor weather, climate and other environmental changes, and to receive vital early disaster warnings on extreme weather events. The Interconnected Disaster Risk report published in 2024 by the United Nations University identified space debris and collisions as at a tipping point. Projections staggeringly estimate more than 100,000 new spacecraft will be launched by 2030, increasing the risk of collisions.
The report also highlights that there currently are no binding international rules for managing space debris. The Outer Space Treaty (OST), established in 1967 and serving as the bedrock of space law since, is showing its limitations. As space activities have evolved from state-dominated explorations to include extensive commercial operations by non-state actors, such as the mega constellations deployed by companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, the treaty falls short. It lacks, for example, specific guidelines for commercial activities, space mining, and crucially, mandates for debris mitigation and removal.
There are thankfully several solutions. Space-faring nations as well as regional organisations, such as the European Union, are funding specialised companies to remove active objects from orbit. Large debris requires effective management to minimise potential harm and the European Space Agency’s ClearSpace-1 mission showcases debris removal, while the Japanese company Astroscale is offering to remove operators’ redundant space hardware from orbit.
These are all welcome approaches but may not be sustainable in the long term as space becomes more congested. Moreover, active debris removal solutions are an “end-of-pipe” approach, focused on managing the problem rather than solving it. Future solutions also need to address the core of the issue: how to design future space technology with zero-waste principles.
To this end, the European Space Agency recently launched the idea of creating a “circular space economy” by 2050. Circular solutions include reuse, repair, recycling, eco-design, sustainable supply and responsible consumption. Many circular economy technologies are already being used in space programmes, including design for durability, closed-loop water and nutrient cycling in the International Space Station and 3D printing applications for repair and upgrades.
New satellite innovations such as the world’s first wooden satellite, LignoSat, developed by Japanese researchers and launched into space in November 2024, show the way for the use of biomaterials in future lunar and Mars exploration. Biomaterials have lower density, so in case of collisions there is less kinetic impact and on re-entry, they would also more easily burn up. When it comes to the economic viability of a circular space economy, there is also a strong case. The reuse value of space debris has been estimated to be in the order of $600bn to $1.2tn.
Legal measures that have proved effective in environmental governance and policy on Earth to control hazardous waste and pollution could also be applied. The “polluter pays” principle would place legal and financial responsibility on space operators and technology producers (this is particularly relevant to regulate the rapidly increasing number of private operators). A rare example of enforcement action was taken by the US Federal Communications Commission in October 2023, fining the operator Dish Network $150,000 for failing to properly retire one of its satellites. Getting a UN-led agreement on space debris governance would require cooperation of all major stakeholders – but is vital to transcend geopolitical tensions, and protect space and those of us on Earth looking up at the sky.
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Dr Patrick Schröder is a senior research fellow in the Environment and Society programme, Chatham House, with an expertise in the global transition to an inclusive circular economy
