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5 hours ago
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The truth was written all over the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s face in the Oval Office last week.
The US is an unreliable ally. “The Trump administration seems unlikely to provide Ukraine with an adequate security guarantee even as it is demanding the ability to rinse Ukraine for its resources, and on Tuesday “paused” all military aid. European leaders are quickly and rightly losing faith in the Nato mutual security guarantee. America has threatened to annex allies including Canada and Greenland. Administration cronies like Elon Musk are now openly musing about the US withdrawing not just from Nato but from the UN.
Trump has long been signalling that this would happen – the question was always how far he would go. In that sense, though it is deeply shocking, the meeting with Zelenskyy is not a surprise. The writing has been on the wall for some time.
The Trump administration is a direct threat to global security. And its traditional allies are paying attention.
Polling by the Australia Institute suggests that a significant shift is under way in how Australians think about our alliance with the US, driven by the Trump presidency. Given three choices as to who they thought is the greatest threat to world peace, 27% of Australian respondents chose the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. The same number chose the Chinese president, Xi Jinping.
Thirty-one per cent chose the US president, Donald Trump.
Australians are listening when Trump tells us who he is. For Australians the US president is now on a par with the world’s most powerful authoritarians. Half of the respondents said that they felt less secure since his election in 2024. Only 17% feel more secure. Given the long-held assumption that Australia and the US, as two democracies, share common values and interests, that is an extraordinary development.
That fear is perhaps underpinned by the dawning knowledge that the US is not coming to save us – a realisation that has spread across Europe. Asked if Trump would defend Australia and Australia’s interests if this country were threatened, half of the respondents said they were not at all confident. Only 16% share the prime minister’s confidence in the “rock solid” Anzus treaty – and that was before Trump and JD Vance’s ritual humiliation of Zelenskyy at the weekend.
A new reality is dawning for America’s traditional allies. That is reflected in Denmark, where nearly half the country sees the US as a direct threat – more so than Iran or North Korea. Similarly, the incoming German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA ... I never thought I would have to say something like this”.
Many Australians, too, and especially the Australian government, perhaps never thought that the US would become not just unreliable, but a nation that we might actually need some protection from. For the most part, Australian foreign and security policy has operated under the assumption that the US would always be there and that our interests would always converge.
Trump has made it clear that he does not care about us, our values or our interests. While Australia has (so far) avoided the worst excesses of the Trump administration, the new president has not done us any favours. He has so far failed to grant Australia any special carve-outs for blanket steel and aluminium tariffs, and has threatened retaliatory measures over domestic technology regulation. And asked about the albatross of Australian defence and security policy, the Aukus submarine pact, last week, Trump responded: “What does that mean?”
Trump’s lack of interest is unsurprising. What is perhaps more unsettling is indications by the British government that it may walk back its Aukus commitments in order to refocus on Europe, given Trump’s clear undercutting of Nato.
That might well give even more impetus to Australia’s changing ideas about the future of our security. 44% of respondents, like the future German leader, believe that Australia’s interests are better served by an independent foreign policy. Just 35% prefer a closer alliance with the US.
Trump is upending the world order that the US helped to create. He may also upend Australian foreign policy in the process. For 70 years, Australian foreign and security policy has revolved around the mythical security guarantee provided by the US. But as the horrifying spectacle in the White House over the weekend made clear, the America we thought we knew is gone. And we know it.
