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The UK is hoping to shape a new global axis in favour of climate action along with China and a host of developing countries, to offset the impact of Donald Trump’s abandonment of green policies and his sharp veer towards climate-hostile countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Ed Miliband, the UK’s energy and net zero secretary, arrived in Beijing on Friday for three days of talks with top Chinese officials, including discussions on green technology supply chains, coal and the critical minerals needed for clean energy. The UK’s green economy is growing three times faster than the rest of the economy, but access to components and materials will be crucial for that to continue.
He said: “We can only keep future generations safe from climate change if all major emitters act. It is simply an act of negligence to today’s and future generations not to engage China on how it can play its part in taking action on climate.”
Writing in the Guardian, he added: “Climate action at home without pushing other, larger countries to do their fair share would not protect current and future generations. We will only protect our farmers, our pensioners and our children if we get other countries of the world to play their part.”
China is facing a barrage of tariffs from Trump on its exports to the US, and the possibility that the EU will start levying green tariffs on imports of high-carbon Chinese goods, such as steel.
The world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter is profiting from record exports of electric vehicles, solar panels and other low-carbon goods. But it is still highly dependent on coal, and though the upward march of its emissions appears to have paused, whether China reduces its carbon output or returns to fossil fuels may depend largely on the government’s response to Trump’s trade war.
Many experts believe the only prospect of staving off climate breakdown is for China, the EU, the UK and other major economies to form a pro-climate bloc alongside vulnerable developing countries, to counter the weight of US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and petrostates pushing for the continued expansion of fossil fuels.
Miliband’s visit to Beijing is the first by a UK energy secretary in eight years. He visited India last month on a similar mission, and travelled to Brazil last year, as well as holding meetings with many minsters of developing countries at the Cop29 climate summit last November.
Catherine Abreu, the director of the International Climate Politics Hub, said: “It’s really important to see this happening – there is no way to fulfil the Paris agreement without China. And China has made clear it is willing to be more vocal on these issues, to boost climate action. We see an openness in China to band together with Europe, Canada, the UK on climate issues.”
But the prospects of agreement on the sharp emissions cuts needed globally to limit temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, in line with the Paris agreement, are increasingly remote. Brazil will host this year’s UN climate summit, Cop30, in the Amazon in November amid the worst geopolitical tensions in decades, and as many governments prepare to pour money into rearmament.
Only a handful of countries, including the UK, have so far submitted their national plans on emissions cuts for the next decade as required under the 2015 Paris agreement, despite the deadline passing last month. China is unlikely to produce its plan until much closer to the Cop30 conference, and will be keenly watched, as its current carbon targets are much too weak to stay within the 1.5C limit.
Miliband may find he needs to adapt his plans for a booming green economy in the UK in the face of China’s economic dominance of the low-carbon technology market, according to Li Shuo, the director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“We need to be honest about the economic reality,” he said. “All countries in the world are hoping for a share of the green pie. But that is not aligned with the economic reality … that they can’t outcompete China.”
