Ukraine war briefing: Russia and Iran deepen defence ties as Trump inauguration looms

Russian president Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed a broad cooperation pact on Friday as their countries deepened their partnership in the face of stinging western sanctions. Russian and Iranian officials say the “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” covers all areas, from trade and military cooperation to science, education and culture. It came ahead of Monday’s inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine and take a tougher stance on Iran, which is grappling with growing economic problems and other challenges, including military setbacks in its sphere of influence across the Middle East. Russia’s ties with Iran have grown closer after Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine and the west have accused Tehran of providing Moscow with hundreds of drones for use to attack Ukraine, which Moscow and Tehran have denied. “We witness a new chapter of strategic relations,” Pezeshkian said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Friday that there was no reason to drop sanctions against Russia, as Hungary holds up extending the measures pending Donald Trump’s return to the White House. “We definitely need the sanctions in place. This is our leverage, and it would be very strange to give it away,” Kallas told journalists. “Things haven’t changed. Putin hasn’t changed his goals and nothing has changed on the ground. So there is no basis for lifting the sanctions.” The EU has imposed 15 rounds of unprecedented sanctions on Moscow since the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The next decision on extending the sanctions has to be taken unanimously by the EU’s 27 member states by 31 January.

Chinese president Xi Jinping has spoken to Donald Trump on the phone in the first direct contact between the two men since 2021 and just days ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Trump in the past has praised his relationship with Xi and suggested China could help mediate international crises such as the war in Ukraine. As well as discussing TikTok, trade, fentanyl and Taiwan, the two leaders exchanged views on the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war and agreed to establish “a channel of strategic communication”, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.

Keir Starmer has urged world leaders to “double down” in their efforts to support Ukraine during a visit to Poland, days before Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency risks jeopardising international solidarity on the issue. Speaking alongside the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, after the pair discussed a proposed defence-focused treaty, Starmer dodged questions on the possible impact of Trump, but insisted the only way forward was “peace on Ukraine’s terms”. Starmer, who held talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday during his first official trip to Ukraine since taking office, said defence and security issues had dominated the talks in Warsaw.

Outgoing secretary of state Antony Blinken said he hoped the incoming Trump administration would press forward with key points in President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, including on the Middle East and Ukraine. But in an interview with Associated Press on his last workday as America’s top diplomat, he expressed concern that the Trump team might abandon all or some of those policies, including on Ukraine. “When we came in, we inherited partnerships and alliances that were seriously frayed,” he said. “So if past is prologue, yes, it would be a concern.” Trump has been critical of US military aid to Ukraine and has praised Vladimir Putin.

A Ukrainian drone attack triggered a fire late on Friday in Russia’s Kaluga region south of Moscow, and social media sites showed video footage of what they described as an oil storage depot ablaze. Kaluga regional governor Vladislav Shapsha said on Telegram that a fire had broken out after an industrial site was hit in the city of Lyudinovo. In a later posting, Shapsha said seven drones had been downed, with one landing in a “non-residential area”. The fire, he said, had been brought under control with no casualties.

Russia’s defence ministry and the governor of Bryansk region reported that air defence units had destroyed a total of nine Ukrainian drones over the region on the border. No casualties were reported. The governor of Smolensk region, bordering Russian ally Belarus, said air defences had downed five Ukrainian drones with no casualties.

Ukraine launched an attack on Russia’s Belgorod region with six US-made Atacms missiles on Thursday, the Russian defence ministry said on Friday. It said Russia would retaliate, but that all the missiles had been intercepted, resulting in no casualties or damage. Moscow has said it will respond every time Ukraine fires Atacms or British-supplies Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia.

Russian seaborne oil product exports fell by almost 10% last year after Ukrainian drone attacks damaged major refineries and as higher funding costs and a government gasoline export ban added to pressure from western sanctions, Reuters reported, citing industry sources. Russia, one of the world’s largest oil and fuel exporters alongside Saudi Arabia and the US, has been trying to access new markets in Asia and South America since the west imposed sanctions over Moscow’s military move on Ukraine in 2022. Lower fuel exports mean Russia’s oil firms have to boost exports of crude to maintain revenues, but such options are limited to just India, China and Turkey, which still buy Russian crude despite sanctions and have their own big refineries.