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Morning opening: The week after the week before
Jakub Krupa
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the negotiations with the US over a security guarantees agreement were “100%” done and the deal was just waiting to be signed, as Russia has praised the trilateral talks with Ukraine and the US over the weekend as held in “constructive spirit.”
“It would be a mistake to expect any significant results from the initial contacts … But the very fact that these contacts have begun in a constructive spirit can be viewed positively. However, there is significant work ahead,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists.
As is often with these things, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. The talks will continue next weekend.
Meanwhile, we are expecting a bit of a debrief after last week’s series of crises, as we will get to see Nato’s secretary general Mark Rutte giving evidence at the European parliament later today, trying to offer a bit more detail on his talks with Donald Trump on Greenland and plans for the security of the Arctic.
Separately, the parliament’s trade committee will consider if it wants to progress with the implementation of the EU-US trade agreement so painfully negotiated last summer, or wait just a bit longer to see if Trump’s change of heart on tariffs and Greenland will stick.
Separately, the EU is also expected to say a bit more about its investment plans for Greenland as part of stepping up its presence there. Jozef Síkela, the European commissioner for partnerships, is in Denmark today.
Lots for us to cover.
It’s Monday, 26 January 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
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Finland warns about Russia's continuing hybrid activities in region
Separately, Finland’s military intelligence has warned about the continuing hybrid activity by Russia and the worsening security situation in the Baltic, with Russia “preparing to strengthen its military presence in the vicinity of the Finnish border” when its resources allow for that.
In its annual review, published late last week, the intelligence service warned that Russia continues its “aggressive anti-western activities,” with “antagonism towards the west … also … more pronounced in the Baltic Sea region,” with a number of “hybrid” operations which it wants to be “deniable or difficult to link to Russia.”
It specifically warned about “intelligence, espionage and sabotage threats” against Finland and other countries, although it noted that “it is likely that Russia does not see Finland as a primary target.”
In another example, it pointed to a Russian-built Indian Talwar II class frigate sailing to the Gulf of Bothnia, the northernmost arm of the Baltic Sea, noting “it is extremely rare for foreign warships” to go there. “Even though the vessel was Indian, the activities serve Russian interests in testing Finnish and Swedish reaction,” it said.
In particular, Russia continues to “aggressively” protect its shadow fleet, including through the jamming of navigation systems, “increasing the risk of the intentional or unintentional escalation and accidents,” it said.
It also added that Moscow “will likely persist in its ambitions to damage the undersea infrastructure of the Baltic Sea.”
The report also stressed the impact of the on-going Russian invasion of Ukraine for the region’s security, saying that Moscow “has successfully used negotiations to postpone western countermeasures,” which means “it is highly likely it will continue the war.”
Finland steps up maritime surveillance with EU, Baltics to protect critical undersea infrastructure
Meanwhile, Finland’s Border Guard is setting up a maritime surveillance centre together with other Baltic Sea states and the European Commission for the protection of critical undersea infrastructure in the Gulf of Finland, Reuters reported.
“Competent authorities must have the capability and the authority to intervene in situations occurring in the territorial sea and the exclusive economic zone,” it said in a statement.
The Baltic Sea region is on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and Nato has increased its Baltic Sea presence with frigates, aircraft and naval drones.
Morning opening: The week after the week before
Jakub Krupa
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the negotiations with the US over a security guarantees agreement were “100%” done and the deal was just waiting to be signed, as Russia has praised the trilateral talks with Ukraine and the US over the weekend as held in “constructive spirit.”
“It would be a mistake to expect any significant results from the initial contacts … But the very fact that these contacts have begun in a constructive spirit can be viewed positively. However, there is significant work ahead,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists.
As is often with these things, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. The talks will continue next weekend.
Meanwhile, we are expecting a bit of a debrief after last week’s series of crises, as we will get to see Nato’s secretary general Mark Rutte giving evidence at the European parliament later today, trying to offer a bit more detail on his talks with Donald Trump on Greenland and plans for the security of the Arctic.
Separately, the parliament’s trade committee will consider if it wants to progress with the implementation of the EU-US trade agreement so painfully negotiated last summer, or wait just a bit longer to see if Trump’s change of heart on tariffs and Greenland will stick.
Separately, the EU is also expected to say a bit more about its investment plans for Greenland as part of stepping up its presence there. Jozef Síkela, the European commissioner for partnerships, is in Denmark today.
Lots for us to cover.
It’s Monday, 26 January 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
