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European leaders holding emergency talks in Brussels are expected to agree on a massive increase to defence spending amid a drive to shore up support for Ukraine after Donald Trump halted US military aid and intelligence sharing.
Arriving at the summit, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was originally scheduled to join through a video link, said: “We are very thankful that we are not alone.”
The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who will present to leaders an €800bn (£670bn) plan to increase European defence spending, said it was “a watershed moment for Europe” and also for Ukraine.
Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, set the tone of the meeting: “Spend, spend, spend on defence and deterrence. That is the most important message, and at the same time, of course, continue to support Ukraine because we want peace in Europe.”
The show of unity could be spoiled by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, who has threatened to veto an EU text on Ukraine that seeks to push back against Donald Trump’s attempt to make a peace deal with Vladimir Putin that sidelines Europe.
The EU special summit was called last week, after Trump embarked on his direct diplomacy with the Russian president, but before the US president’s bullying encounter with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office and the suspension of US military aid.
EU leaders are expected to largely endorse the €800bn plan to “rearm Europe” outlined by von der Leyen earlier this week. “Europe must become more sovereign, more responsible for its own defence and better equipped to act and deal autonomously with immediate and future challenges and threats,” states the latest draft conclusions seen by the Guardian. The EU “will accelerate the mobilisation of the necessary instruments and financing” to boost security and “reinforce its overall defence readiness [and] reduce its strategic dependencies”.
Arriving at the summit, von der Leyen told reporters: “Europe faces a clear and present danger, and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself, as we have to put Ukraine in a position to protect itself and to push for a lasting and just peace.”
The €800bn plan to boost defence spending includes a €150bn loan scheme, secured against unused funds in the EU budget, as well as greater flexibilities in the EU’s fiscal rules that could unlock €650bn in new spending.
In a seismic shift, Germany’s probable next coalition partners, the CDU-CSU and SPD, have agreed to change the country’s “debt brake” to allow increased spending on defence, heralding billions for armaments production. Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, the fiscal hawk turned defence spending advocate, met von der Leyen and the European Council president, António Costa, before the summit, although he is not yet at the table.
The current German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who represents Germany as coalition talks continue, said there appeared to be growing consensus on changing the German constitution to allow greater defence spending.
He gave a cool response to Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to allow European allies to shelter under the French nuclear umbrella, saying Europe should not give up on US involvement. Merz, however, has said he wanted to discuss with Paris and London whether British and French nuclear protection could be extended to Germany.
Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said the French proposal on nuclear deterrence should be seriously considered as part of a broader plan to co-ordinate European defence capabilities.
Europe had lost a lot of time, “but today everything has truly changed” Tusk said, referring to the commission’s proposals and recent meetings of European leaders in Paris and London. The war in Ukraine, the new approach of the US administration and the arms race initiated by Russia posed new challenges for Europe, he said, adding: “I am convinced that Russia will lose this arms race – just as the Soviet Union lost a similar arms race 40 years ago.”
EU officials said it was unlikely that leaders will agree a precise plan for European military aid for Ukraine for 2025, following a proposal from the EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Since Kallas set out her plan to get weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, amounts ranging from €20bn to €40bn have been floated.
Kallas said she hoped to see a political agreement on her proposal at Thursday’s summit, with numbers being filled in at a European Council on 20-21 March. Asked about Hungary’s opposition, she said her initiative could also be based on a “coalition of the willing” to avoid one country blocking everyone else.
Before Thursday’s summit, Orbán prompted an angry response when he called on the EU to follow Trump and enter direct peace talks with Putin, in a letter where he announced his intention to veto the summit conclusions on Ukraine.
The Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nausėda, said the EU needed to look at other ways of taking decisions, getting around opposition from one or two countries, “because otherwise history will penalise us”.
“It’s lasting too long, our inability to take decisions. And now it is the time [to act],” he said.
Absent from the EU draft text are proposals for new common borrowing (eurobonds), but the idea continues to circulate, despite opposition from Germany that Scholz reiterated on Thursday.
“The European Union will truly turn a page on a Europe of defence,” said a senior EU official before the meeting, referring to Thursday’s summit. “Is this the end of the story? No I don’t think so.”
