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The sprawling ArcelorMittal Dofasco steel plant in Hamilton, Ontario has in recent months become a site of pilgrimage for Canadian political leaders.
Dressed in pristine orange coveralls and hard hats, prime ministers and provincial premiers gaze at coiled sheets of steel with the stern grimaces and keen interest of generals reviewing a military parade.
And, in the eyes of many Canadians, the country is already in a state of conflict.
This week, after a string of feints and retreats, a phony trade war came to an end as Donald Trump threatened to inflict “a financial price … so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come”.
US tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, followed in turn by retaliatory levies by Canada.
And so, barely 48 hours after winning the race to lead the ruling federal Liberal party, Canada’s prime minister-designate, Mark Carney, became the latest politician to head to Dofasco.
The former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada criticized the “unjustified” tariffs and said he was willing to sit down with Trump, as long as the president showed “respect for Canadian sovereignty”.
That remained in doubt: just a day earlier, Trump had restated his argument that Canada should become the “cherished Fifty First State”, adding: “The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear.”
Such talk might once have been dismissed as harmless trolling or perhaps a strategy to win trade concessions, but Canadians are taking Trump at his word – and readying for a worsening of relations.
“Nobody wants to be here. Nobody wants a trade war. But here we are and I can say one thing – we’re not going to roll over,” said Andrea Horwath, the mayor of Hamilton. “We’ve seen a powerful Team Canada approach across the country because at this moment, fracturing is not an option. Instead, we’re seeing Canada at its finest.”
That unity has come in the form of a “buy Canada” movement, boycotts of leisure travel to the United States, cancellation of entertainment subscriptions and a rallying cry of “Elbows Up” – a reference to energetic tackles in ice hockey.
At the Dofasco site, the relentless hum of machines, punctuated by the clang of passing trains provides the soundtrack to a city Horwath said had “steel in its veins”. Red trucks ferried batches of hot pressed coils, each weighing 20 tons, for shipment to buyers – many of which are south of the border.
Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the US, exporting 10m tonnes and 3m tonnes of the metals respectively last year.
“There’s really a lot of uncertainty,” said Vikas Jha, who works as a contractor in the steel industry. “There’s also a lot of talk, but no one really knows what do with that or how seriously to take it.”
A previous round of Trump tariffs, has tempered unease for some: in his first term, the president put a 25% tariff on raw Canadian steel and aluminum. Those levies persisted for a year, but companies like Dofasco felt minimal damage as steel prices soared.
“Last time around, we were fine. The customers in the United States were still buying the steel because they had to continue to operate,” said Jah. “But this time round – we’re not entirely sure what’s going to happen. We’re not seeing panic. But if it’s a long-term thing? Then the mood is going to change pretty quickly.”
In some sectors, the mood has already shifted. This time round, Trump’s tariffs on steel also apply to finished steel-products companies, including National Steel Car, Canada’s largest train car manufacturer, which has seen orders disappear since Trump was elected.
“The fact that leaders are coming here means that industry has their ear,” said one Dofasco worker, Robert Meneguzzi. “Everybody understands the stakes and what’s going on. It’s more a question of what’s actually going on. All we’re seeing on the ground is confusion and uncertainty.”
That sense of doubt has infected bilateral ties of all kinds, rendering unrecognizable a relationship long defined by stability and predictability.
American officials announced that Canadians who visit the US for more than 30 days will be required to register with authorities and submit to fingerprinting – a provision from which Canadians were previously exempt. The shift is likely to affect the 900,000 Canadian “snowbird” senior citizens who annually drive south to spend their winter in warmer southern states.
The United States has also paused negotiations on the Columbia River Treaty, a key water-sharing agreement between the two nations that expired in September.
On the Canadian side, government liquor stores have pulled American spirits and wines. While in British Columbia, the utility operator BC Hydro said it was excluding Tesla from its electric vehicle charger rebate program.
The tariffs, framed by Trump as a move to restore “fairness” in global trade, threaten to inflict disproportionate pain in Canada’s industrial hubs.
Hamilton’s steel industry has declined in recent decades – accounting for 30,000 jobs in the early 1980s but fewer than 10,000 today – but it remains a fixture of the city’s history and tax base.
And the knock-on effect of job losses could be devastating, compounding the impact of that decline, said Horwath.
“We’ve had companies already say that they’re laying off already, that orders have dried up. Others don’t know if they can weather the storm, because they don’t know how long the storm will last,” she said.
“Hamilton is a city that makes things, and we have been for a very, very long time. What’s next and where is this all going? There’s a lot of tension, a lot of uncertainty and a lot of worry.”
Horwath, who says as many as 42,000 jobs could be at risk in the region, recently met with company leaders who pledged to keep roots in the industrial city.
“The commitment they showed to Hamilton, to Canada, and the fierceness by which they spoke about their intent to, you know, to hold on and to fight back and to rebuild was heartening,” she said. “Of course, there are limits depending on how things get.”
On Thursday, Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, and the federal finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, visited Washington to meet with Trump’s combative commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, in an effort to dial back tensions.
“If you’re racing to the basement, there’s no real prize for the first person to get to the basement,” said LeBlanc before the visit.
Horwath, who recently returned from the US capital after meeting with other mayors along the Great Lakes, said the ripple effects of a sustained fight would be “catastrophic” for Hamilton.
“This isn’t theoretical. This is real. And I’m grateful for all the attention we’re getting from federal and provincial leaders because they reality is, we’re ground zero,” she said. “We’re an example of the bad things that happen if we don’t fight like hell.”
