Weather tracker: Arctic winter sea ice at record low this year, scientists say

Winter sea ice in the Arctic has reached a record low in 2025, according to Nasa and the US’s National Snow and Ice Data Center. The annual peak, recorded on 22 March, was the lowest since records began 47 years ago, with sea ice covering just 5.53m sq miles – about 1.1m sq miles less than last year, and 30,000 sq miles below the previous low in 2017. The Gulf of St Lawrence had almost no ice, while the Sea of Okhotsk experienced notably lower than average sea ice extent.

In late January, sea ice extent in the Arctic unexpectedly decreased, losing an area the size of Italy (more than 115,000 sq miles). This can be attributed to cyclones pushing southerly winds in the Barents and Bering seas, causing ocean waves that broke apart and melted thin ice at the edge of the ice sheet. Temperatures up to 12C above normal were recorded between northern Greenland and the north pole.

Arctic sea ice extent is expected to continue its decline in the coming years due to a combination of warmer temperatures, warm seas, wind breaking up ice, and thinner ice – all exacerbated by the climate crisis. Some climate models suggest the Arctic could experience ice-free summers before 2050, though these projections remain uncertain.

Elsewhere, the past weekend marked the start of a prolonged and widespread risk of severe thunderstorms across central and eastern parts of the US, with this threat continuing through much of the coming week. On 29 and 30 March there was severe weather from the Great Lakes to Texas, with several tornadoes reported, along with straight-line wind gusts of up to 96mph (154km/h) and 3in hail. This initial round of severe weather will affect eastern parts of the country on Monday.

The second bout of severe weather is expected to develop across the central plains on Tuesday, as an eastward-moving upper-level low interacts with the boundary between hot and humid air across southern states, and cold air across the north. Tuesday’s thunderstorms are expected to develop from Minnesota to Texas, with the risk slowly shifting eastwards during the second half of the week. Storms will bring a further chance of damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes – some of which have the potential to be significant.

A pedestrian shields themselves from the rain during a downpour in Edinburg, Texas, last week. Photograph: Joel Martinez/AP

The slow eastward progression of the storm system is expected to result in an additional threat in the form of flooding, with periods of heavy rain in some areas. The National Water Prediction Service is forecasting a considerable risk of flooding across an area from Louisville to Little Rock, with 6-12in of rainfall expected in places this week.