German far right setting agenda as opponents amplify its ideas, study finds

Mainstream parties are increasingly allowing the far right to set the agenda, researchers in Germany have found, describing it as a shortcoming that had unwittingly helped the far right by legitimising their ideas and disseminating them more widely.

The findings, published in the European Journal of Political Research, were based on an automated text analysis of 520,408 articles from six German newspapers over the span of more than two decades.

The Berlin-based researchers found that as the far right moved from fringe issues in the late 1990s to topics such as integration and migration, mainstream parties had increasingly reshaped their communications to respond, boosting the spread of these ideas and signalling to voters that these ideas and stances were legitimate.

The overarching result had crucial implications for democracy, said Teresa Völker, a political sociologist at Berlin Social Science Center and co-author of the study. “Political communication by mainstream parties plays a central role in the electoral success of the far right,” she said. “This factor has been underestimated.”

This impact was evident even when mainstream parties were criticising the far right. “You’re still giving them attention,” said Völker. “Our core argument is that because we live in such a battle for attention, this attention is key. Whoever sets the agenda has an impact on what voters think and who they vote for.”

While the research was focused on Germany, this normalisation effect was likely to apply to countries across Europe, said Daniel Saldivia Gonzatti, a political sociologist at the Berlin Social Science Center and co-author of the study. “You see this a lot in German and British media,” he said. “The far right says something and everybody starts talking about it for one week. And everyone is shocked by it, but it is making headlines. Even if you’re countering it, you’re repeating it.”

At times, leaders had also hardened their discourse to match that of the far right. In a 2023 interview, Olaf Scholz, the then German chancellor and leader of the Social Democratic party (SPD), said it was time to “deport on a large scale those who have no right to stay in Germany” and called for deportations to happen “more often and faster” across the country.

Similar examples can be found across Europe, as the politicians of countries ranging from the UK to France adopt the language of the far right, particularly when it comes to migration, creating an echo chamber that would have been unthinkable to many a decade ago.

At the heart of the issue was the question of who was setting the tone and deciding on the topic, said Saldivia Gonzatti. “If you’re a moderate party and you are talking about what we call cultural issues – migration, integration – in a way that is dictated by the rhythm of the far right, that’s the whole idea of agenda setting.”

Other political parties have gone one step further, seeking to copy the hardline agenda of the far right, even as research suggests that doing so drives voters to cast their ballot for the far right.

The scope of data collected revealed that the influence of far-right parties had been gradual and had increased over time, said Völker. “Public perception doesn’t change from one day to another. But if you hear this negative framing around migration every second week, and it is being spread not only by far-right parties but also, for example, by the Social Democrats, then of course this narrative travels further.”

The findings build on previous studies that have shown that the far right has been steadily normalised, whether through the decisions of mainstream parties to join forces with them in coalitions and alliances or the attention showered on them by mass media.

In this case, however, researchers were surprised at the extent of the far right’s influence. “Our expectation was that it was rightwing parties that were more likely to react to far-right agenda setting,” said Saldivia Gonzatti. “And what we find was that it is not specifically the case, it is across the board.” Opposition parties were also more likely to be influenced than parties that were in government, the study found.

The findings would probably be similar across Europe, said Völker. An exception, she said, was the Nordic countries where the far-right influence had moved into what she described as the “second stage”, extending past cultural issues to occupy a wide range of topics.

“As all the mainstream parties have already adopted the agenda of the far right on some positions related to migration, they are already kind of past the point where the far right sets the agenda only on migration,” Völker said.

The research highlighted the need for mainstream political parties to carve out their own discourses, said Saldivia Gonzatti, particularly when it came to topics such as migration and integration, rather than constantly trail after the far right.

“It’s like a dance,” he said. “If the conductor is far-right and you’re reacting to it, you cannot decide which music should be playing.”