Sutherland will need full tank for Scotland to end losing run against Ireland

We were introduced to the term Gambler’s Fallacy this week. Our rough understanding of it is that you’ll be separated quickly from your cash if you believe the outcome of the next event will be different to the series of previous ones simply because you think it’s time for change.

So a losing run can be a series of 50-50 events – teams of equal numbers starting off from the same place at the same time in the same conditions – yet the longer it goes on the closer we come to change because, well, it’s overdue.

Fair enough, but once you get beyond the nuts and bolts of the setting itself, international rugby matches are seldom even before they start. That’s where the bookies do their thing. So is it reasonable to conclude that Scotland will dent Ireland’s hopes of three championship titles in a row because they are so fed up with the colour green it’s going to go the way of the home team?

We used to feel this way about the colour navy. After 12 Tests in a row, from 1989-1999, in which Scotland were undefeated in this fixture, along came the new millennium and with it some hope for change. Well, not much actually. In that first Six Nations meeting between the teams the Scots were off to yet another flyer until a bit of chaos undid them and saved Warren Gatland his Ireland job. It’s tricky predicting the unpredictable.

This time there are no jobs on the line, but Scotland’s patience at coming second in 14 of the past 15 meetings is threadbare. Ideally they would be set up with a combination of Ireland’s ordinary November form spilling into February, along with their own clinical dismantling of Italy. Except neither of those unfolded.

The upside for Gregor Townsend, Scotland’s head coach, is the final quarter at Murrayfield last weekend, when his side had both patience and puff to see the game out, helped by Italy having made more than 100 tackles in the first half. If you look at Glasgow’s healthy state, a key ingredient is their fitness over 80 minutes and improved nous on winning those periods. Having identified final quarters as gaspers, they did something to fix it. This helps Scotland, too.

Rory Sutherland would seem to be a beneficiary, albeit he brought a full tank to the last half-hour when they needed to put Italy away. When asked during the week why Scotland’s record in this fixture is so woeful, Sutherland opted to circumnavigate rather than answer it directly – perhaps the real reason was not something he wanted to share – but he settled for something usable: “I think there is a little bit of added spice there because it’s them,” before adding, with delightful understatement: “We’ve fallen short a couple of times …”

No one was going to take a circa 120kg prop through chapter and verse of the sorrowful mysteries because it’s not that hard to understand: Ireland and Scotland set off on different journeys in opposite directions in the 21st century and they are reflected in 26 wins to six in Ireland’s favour since then.

For the past 10 of those years David Nucifora made a contribution in Ireland through his role as high performance director. On Sunday the Australian is doing the same job for Scotland. Except it won’t have the same results. We do not know what key performance indicators the Scottish Rugby Union has stuck on the wall of his office, but having only two pro teams to work with below national level, and nothing close to the conveyor belt of players enjoyed on Leinster’s school scene, they should be modest.

So if Ireland stretch the pain barrier a bit further in this Test you will understand if Nucifora allows himself some credit. His role in issuing national contracts in Ireland was sometimes contentious, but despite Peter O’Mahony’s downgrading, the Munster back-rower is still scrapping away, nearly a year and a half after reaching the 100-cap mark, coincidentally against Scotland, at the last World Cup. After four runs off the bench in November, O’Mahony is in the starting side on Sunday. It’s a selection that looks more to the past than either present or future.

Peter O’Mahony’s experience gets him the start for Ireland, despite being short of a gallop. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho/Shutterstock

Ireland’s stand-in coach, Simon Easterby, said it was O’Mahony’s experience that got him the start, despite being short of a gallop. “With Pete, we spoke before the England week and having come into camp with a little bit less rugby under his belt we felt that he needed another week to work on a little bit of conditioning,” he said. “He also brings experience which at the moment some other players can’t offer.”

It’s hard to get that commodity if you don’t play, though, isn’t it? Like losing streaks, you need something fundamental to change the course of events.