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It only takes a quick look at today’s poll by Opinium for the Observer to see why a big tactical rethink (some in the Labour party call it a panic) is under way in Downing Street.
In the space of a couple of weeks, the Labour high-command has morphed from being a risk-averse, technocratic operation which said and did very little that was interesting in order to win power – and did little more in the first six months after taking it – into something else entirely.
Suddenly, in the dark of mid-February, Keir Starmer’s Labour government is self-styling its people as “disruptors” and “insurgents”. On Friday, Starmer told his cabinet ministers they had to be the “disrupters if you don’t want to be disrupted”. He meant disrupted by Reform UK.
Out of almost nowhere, a third runway at Heathrow has become policy for a party that before polling day sold itself as the champion of a green industrial revolution. Nothing, but nothing, must now get in the way of economic growth.
Even pumping oil out of a massive area of the North Sea and selling it on to be burned seems to be ruled (unofficially) in, not out. Dark warnings are these days issued daily, in the background, about big cuts to benefits for the “workshy”.
And chilling videos from the party are expected this week to show the terrible journey illegal immigrants to the UK face by buses and planes as they are deported by a government showing zero tolerance towards those whose asylum claims are rejected.
One Labour figure with knowledge of the change of thinking said: “I think it suddenly dawned on people at the top that – hang on – we have seemed to be more in bed with people in Davos and BlackRock rather than working-class people who we need to vote for us. It has all happened in the last couple of weeks.”
The talk in Starmer circles is of learning not recoiling from Trump and his Republicans. Be ready, like them, to shock, change the music, say the unthinkable.
Another senior Labour figure, who applauds the abandonment of caution but is deeply sceptical that it will come to anything, attributes the shift in approach to a coincidence of several factors since the turn of the year.
One has been the worrying (for Labour and the Tories) acceleration of Reform UK’s surge under Nigel Farage. Last week, a YouGov poll had Reform in first place for the first time, one point ahead of Labour. Today, according to Opinium, it is neck-and-neck, just one behind on 26% with Labour on 27%.
Dig deeper into Opinium’s findings and there are dreadful figures for Starmer, and encouraging ones for Reform. Since the general election, Starmer’s rating for being “in touch with ordinary people” has gone from +4% to -38%, and that for “representing what most think” from +1% to -40%.
The main reason people are turning to Reform, the poll finds, is its approach to immigration. Of those considering voting for Reform, 72% cite what Reform says about immigration and border controls. The new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, meanwhile, is failing to make headway, giving Reform a largely free run. The Tories are back in third place on 22%, and almost all Badenoch’s ratings are deep in negative territory.
At the same time, seven months into a Labour government, the economy has been spluttering, and businesses have been complaining about Rachel Reeves’s budget. Growth forecasts have been pegged back and economists seem to think Reeves will soon have to raise taxes again, or cut spending, or both. Last week, the Bank of England halved its forecast for the year and warned that households would face mounting pressure from rising prices
And, finally, all this has been going on as Donald Trump has returned to the White House and made a string of executive orders alongside announcing tariffs on its main trading partners, as he said he would.
The start of Trump’s second term was a blitz. Starmer’s people took note. “Say what you like about Trump, but compare the energy of all the executive orders – delivering on a detailed plan made in opposition and rolled out from day one – with the lost seven months of this Labour government,” said a senior party figure.
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The mood in favour of new ideas and particularly ones to combat Reform is spreading fast throughout the parliamentary Labour party.
Suddenly, new groups of MPs have formed to pool ideas on how take on Farage, all with tacit encouragement from the centre. One such group is bringing together MPs in red-wall seats where Reform is in second place. Another has been formed to look at the common challenges for Labour members in coastal seats, where Reform is also breathing down their necks.
At the same time, the Blue Labour movement is being revived in the party around the traditional ideas of faith, flag and family. Labour is suddenly an ideas factory with few boundaries. The Blue Labour guru, Lord Maurice Glasman, was invited to Trump’s inauguration by the Republican party and is said to have been given a pair of cowboy boots as a gift. In the next few days, he is said to be taking part in TV debates with Nigel Farage on GB News.
“It’s part of a more front-foot, aggressive approach by our side, not endorsing but taking on the populist right,” said a Labour source.
Jonathan Ashworth, the former shadow cabinet minister now working for the pro-Starmer thinktank Labour Together, said it was right to shake things up. “Keir Starmer is right to tell the cabinet to be the ‘disrupters’ – not disruption for its own sake but because it’s key to delivering a thriving economy alongside more efficient, reliable public services.
“Labour can’t go into the next election defending an increasingly expansive status quo which fails to deliver on what citizens now rightly expect. An insurgent, disrupting mindset from ministers means hacking away at pettifogging bureaucracy that holds back infrastructure. It means leveraging AI and technology to drive productivity gains across public services. Our polling and focus groups reveal that voters want to see this change and ministers are right to act with greater urgency.”
Another senior Labour figure said: “We are in power now and we need to deliver. We are in charge of the state, and taking a lot of people’s money in taxes. We need to get going. We need to be bolder.”
