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1 month ago
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Is the Syrian war – the 21st century’s most protracted and second-deadliest conflict – finally nearing its end? One would not bet on it. While a coalition of rebels is closing in from the north toward the capital, Damascus, and has seized key southern border crossings, the fall of the House of Assad remains more prophecy than reality. Yet the odds of President Bashar al-Assad’s departure are shortening. The military forces that once saved his regime – Russian airpower and Hezbollah’s militant fighters – are now preoccupied in Ukraine and Lebanon. Mr Assad looks increasingly vulnerable.
Since the Arab spring reached Syria in March 2011, Mr Assad’s regime has repeatedly defied predictions of collapse. Ruling through fear and intimidation, he has been credibly accused of using chemical weapons, lethal force and brutal torture against his own people. Syria would be better off without him. His fortunes seemed to shift last year when he was welcomed back into the Arab fold after a decade of isolation. Yet this return reflected the self-interest of Arab monarchs and autocrats rather than genuine reconciliation. They saw Mr Assad as a safer bet than the chaos his fall might unleash.
More than 800 people, including 111 civilians, have been killed in the country since the violence erupted last week. The Syrian civil war’s scars remain unhealed. Over the years, Mr Assad’s regime has displaced 12 million people, many out of the country entirely. Today, 2 million Syrians live in dire conditions in refugee camps in Idlib province, the largest of the so-called “de-escalation zones” established by a fragile agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran. Despite this accord, the Syrian regime continued its relentless attacks, reducing Idlib and similar zones in the south to ruins.
Turkey exerts influence over Idlib, but lacks full control. The ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon prompted rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani – who severed ties with al-Qaida in 2017 – to launch an offensive. The rebels’ military thrust exceeded expectations as regime forces collapsed – allowing the Islamist-led groups to recapture key strategic regions, including major cities, with little resistance.
Ankara has faced mounting internal pressure to address the Syrian refugee crisis. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has publicly expressed a desire to meet Mr Assad to end hostilities. Yet Syria’s dictator has rebuffed these overtures, demanding a complete Turkish withdrawal from Syria as a prerequisite for negotiations. Russian mediation has failed to bridge the divide – allowing the regime to continue its attacks on Idlib. Turkish, Russian and Iranian foreign ministers are worried enough to hold weekend talks in Qatar about the fallout from Syria’s escalating civil war. The Middle East’s shifting alliances are reshaping Syria’s fate. Once isolated, Mr Assad now enjoys support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The latter has even discussed with the US whether sanctions could be lifted on Damascus if it broke with Tehran. That might be a deal Donald Trump could take.
Meanwhile, Israel views Syria’s turmoil as presenting peril: risking either a stronger Iranian presence or Turkish-backed Islamist factions holding sway on its borders. Syria’s disarray has drawn attention away from Gaza and the Palestinian cause, sidelining a crisis that demands focus. The country is a stark reminder that the Middle East’s conflicts are deeply interconnected, with outcomes that remain dangerously unpredictable.
