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4 hours ago
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When a government has a working majority as large as Labour’s and probably four years still to run in office, a tricky early byelection may seem a relatively minor distraction. Yet the expected byelection in Runcorn and Helsby is freighted with significance. This first big electoral test for Sir Keir Starmer’s government could also become one of its defining political moments.
Labour is on the back foot as the byelection looms. The party is well down in the polls, Sir Keir’s ratings are poor, and a mere 19% of the public approve of the government’s record. The byelection, likely to take place alongside the local elections on the resonant date of 1 May, will follow a government spring economic statement that is expected to signal bleak financial forecasts, unpopular new spending cuts and bitter internal divisions.
The immediate cause of the contest only adds to Labour’s problems. Mike Amesbury won the seat for Labour last July. In October, however, he was filmed punching a constituent in a Frodsham street. Charged with assault, he pleaded guilty and was given a 10-week prison sentence, suspended for two years following an appeal. The conviction triggered an MP-recall petition for the Cheshire constituency, but Mr Amesbury has now pre‑empted this by resigning.
Ordinarily, Labour might have relatively little trouble retaining the seat, even in these unsavoury circumstances. Runcorn and Helsby is the party’s 49th safest seat in the UK (out of the 411 it won last year). Mr Amesbury took 53% of the vote in 2024 and had a 35-point lead over his nearest challenger. Labour can afford to take a hit to its vote but still hold on.
However, Labour’s byelection danger lights are flashing bright red. In 2024, Reform UK came second here, with the Tories third, making this one of the 89 seats in which Reform UK is now Labour’s main challenger. In other circumstances, Runcorn and Helsby would still be way down the list of those 89 Reform UK targets. But it is the one in the spotlight now, and both parties know it. Constituency polls suggest Reform UK is ahead.
Labour is not the only one with problems. Reform UK is having a torrid 2025 itself. Nigel Farage has been humiliated by Donald Trump’s pro-Russia lurches on Ukraine. The row between Mr Farage and Rupert Lowe has exposed dark political divides. A split may loom, with Mr Lowe perhaps embracing the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, amid the encouragement of Elon Musk. None of this is likely to help Reform UK’s task.
How much impact this all has on the doorsteps in Runcorn and Helsby by May Day is hard to predict. The contest will also be difficult for the third-place Conservatives, internally conflicted over Reform UK and flailing under Kemi Badenoch. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens, respectively a distant fourth and fifth last July, have difficult tactical choices too. It all guarantees a bitter fight, which is already revving up.
Even a narrow Labour win would help Sir Keir, take some wind out of Reform UK’s sails, and draw sighs of relief from Mrs Badenoch. A Reform UK win, however, would cause turmoil in Labour and the Conservatives, convincing each that the principal threat is indeed from Mr Farage, but dividing both parties over how to respond – and triggering leadership speculation. What cannot be disputed is that the result will have big consequences. That late-night punch in a Frodsham street may have changed the face of British politics.
