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Before the 2015 UK election, the Australian political expert Lynton Crosby devised a strategy for the Tories that became known as “scraping the barnacles off the boat” – shedding unpopular policies that hindered the party’s electoral appeal.
Instead, the party focused on core issues it believed would help win over floating voters: the economy, welfare, the strength of David Cameron (and weakness of Ed Miliband) and immigration. Everything else was deprioritised and the Conservatives stuck to their messages rigidly. It worked.
Keir Starmer now appears to be doing the same, talking relentlessly about cost of living in cabinet meetings, with Labour MPs and in the media, despite international events from Venezuela to Iran regularly pulling him in.
The prime minister has also sanctioned a series of policy reversals on issues that have become lightning rods for the government’s unpopularity. The most recent of these is digital ID cards, which faced a loud and angry campaign on social media and tanked in polling. There were also internal concerns over cost and complexity.
Ministers have now abandoned plans for mandatory digital IDs, while leaving open the possibility that people will be able to use other documents to prove their right to work.
It is just the latest in a series of U-turns on unpopular policies that includes farmers’ inheritance tax and – expected in the next few days – business rates for pubs.
The plan to limit jury trials could be the next to be watered down after a backlash from MPs, peers and senior figures in the legal profession.
Ministers caution against including any decision to ban social media for under-16s in the same category, not least because the government has always said it would keep an open mind on the policy and watch how it developed in Australia.
“That’s an issue to step into, rather than one we want to make go away. Yes, we might be behind the curve on the social media ban, but we’re not on a completely different curve,” one minister said.
Cabinet ministers said the “barnacles” strategy has not been set out explicitly but was signalled clearly by Starmer and his top aides in political cabinet meetings over the past two weeks. “Every minute that we’re not talking about the cost of living is a wasted minute,” he told them.
One cabinet minister said: “We’ve been told to focus on what the public wants us to focus on, which is the cost of living. They know that our ability to set that direction is compromised if there are too many other issues. They’re taking surer decisions about where to spend political capital.
“U-turns aren’t optimal but they’re preferable if you need to move on from policies which are high salience and low approval. Is it better to scrape the barnacles off the boat than stick with unpopular decisions? Yes.”
A second cabinet minister agreed: “There’s definitely a case for ripping the plaster off. If there are things that need to change, then do it now, because it becomes harder. We can’t have week after week, month after month, of U-turns and chopping and changing.
“The thing that is very frustrating is that we’ve seen not just unforced errors, but issues that were foreseeable, like with ID cards. The policy was rushed out and ended badly and now we’re having to do a big clear-up operation.”
Downing Street insiders insist the emphasis on the cost of living is not just a new year soundbite. “It’s a massive focus for everything the government does, even if it’s difficult with everything going on on the world stage,” said one.
But another suggested the U-turns were a result of lack of grip, saying that some were happening because of “absolute chaos and madness every day” as policy was formed inside the government.
A Labour source said the U-turns were having a damaging effect on loyalty within the parliamentary party and they feared further reverses on jury trials and Send education reform. “We’ve been walked up the hill and walked back down again so many times,” they said. “That whittles down the number of MPs who will not only vote with the government but go out to bat for them and it gives other MPs confidence to do their own thing.”
Others inside government point the finger of blame at the prime minister himself. “It raises questions about judgment, that’s the problem. It’s salvageable but we’ve given the public the worst first impression,” said a cabinet minister.
“The public isn’t just questioning our values, they’re questioning our competence, which is a dangerous place to be because that’s how we sold ourselves, and now it looks like we don’t even have that.”
A different cabinet source added: “Of course U-turns aren’t good, but the issue with each of these was the decision taken in the first place.”
The source drew a distinction between the flurry of reversals over the past few weeks and some of the more politically damaging policy U-turns in Labour’s first year in office.
A government insider said: “Winter fuel is still a problem for us on the doorstep after all this time – people put their trust in us and we broke it within a matter of weeks. And our handling of the welfare bill was disastrous – it didn’t just leave us with a fiscal hole, it left us with a serious party management problem.”
Downing Street insiders defended Starmer, saying he was focused on making sure his plans achieved their objective. “We’re always going to look at policies and how to make them more effective. That’s not always easy but we need to be prepared to do it.”
Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, was quick to capitalise on the digital ID roll-back at PMQs on Wednesday, telling Starmer that while she welcomed the decision, she felt “like I say that every week”.
She also asked whether the prime minister agreed with the health secretary, Wes Streeting, who had said the government’s new year resolution should be “to get it right first time” on policy.
While the “barnacles” strategy worked for the Tories a decade ago, it will not necessarily be enough for Labour.
Crosby had another well-known political maxim: you can’t fatten a pig on market day. Starmer and his team do not have any time to waste with local elections in May.
