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At a Conservative donors event last week, Kemi Badenoch was asked for a selfie by the former Spice Girl Geri Horner. The Tory leader was, her allies say, a little bemused by the approach. But they were clear about what it meant: cut-through.
Badenoch’s leadership got off to a poor start. Still reeling from the Tories’ worst general election defeat, she took over a diminished and disheartened party, which was languishing in the polls and facing an existential threat in the form of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
For months, impatient Conservative insiders shared concerns about her political strategy, her inner team and the struggle to get a grip on the party’s dire finances and broken machinery, as well as her visceral dislike of the media and combative demeanour.
By the time of her first party conference as leader in early October, many MPs feared the Tories were drifting into irrelevance.They privately agreed the clock was ticking on Badenoch, with her first anniversary in the job the moment when, under party rules, she could first face a leadership challenge.
But despite the Tory party’s reputation for regicide, the challenge did not come. Instead, almost six weeks after that moment of potential peril, her own side finally appears to be warming to her. There are even signs the public is starting to give her a hearing.
While overall Tory poll ratings remain stubbornly low, a More in Common poll this week put Badenoch’s approval rating at -14. Though still significantly down on when she became leader, it puts her now nearly level with Farage and the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, and well above the prime minister, Keir Starmer, languishing at -48.
What changed? Tory insiders say the turning point was Badenoch’s confident performance at the party’s annual conference, including a policy-heavy speech designed to improve her standing with members. It was billed – rightly – as a make-or-break moment.
It probably helped that Robert Jenrick, the nakedly ambitious shadow justice secretary, emerged from conference a diminished figure, after his complaint about “not seeing another white face” in part of Birmingham led to accusations of toxic nationalism.
One Conservative MP who was previously sceptical about Badenoch’s chances of hanging on said the conference had changed their view. “It boosted morale among activists, it settled MPs’ nerves and, most importantly, it gave her some confidence, which you can now see in prime minister’s questions (PMQs).
“It has taken some time, but she has worked out how she wants to do opposition. We’re going into the new year in a much better place than we were a few months ago, let alone a year ago.”
Badenoch – who in government had a reputation for abrasive belligerence, but who in opposition had been accused by some in her party of being slightly invisible – appears to have rediscovered her fighting spirit.
In particular, they singled out her attacks on Peter Mandelson and Angela Rayner – both of whom ultimately lost their jobs – and her rather brutal response to Rachel Reeves at the budget, with polls suggesting the economy is the Tories’ strongest card in an otherwise weak hand.
“It was the budget response that cut through everywhere. I kept going to events and people would say, ‘Your Kemi is doing well,” one shadow minister said.
“My colleagues have noticed the difference, too. They’re now starting to see her as a strong, confident leader. Starmer has been unbelievably patronising to her over the past year, but even he can see she has got her mojo.”
The upturn in party mood, they added, was helped by the impressions that the Labour government were doing “astonishingly badly”.
Badenoch, who had faced criticism for ceding the spotlight to Farage, has also noticeably stepped up her visibility, including regular press conferences and attending events with donors and party members across the country, as well as post-PMQs lunches with MPs.
Tory insiders suggest that changes to the top team have helped, with the departure of some of her closest allies from government and the promotion of more experienced hands, including former aides to Michael Gove.
Others, however, say this is overstated. “That is just the new lot blaming the old lot and puffing themselves up,” said one shadow minister.
“The reality is she has got more confident and at the same time Keir Starmer has been making mistakes. It also helps that she has learned to punch Labour’s bruises rather than trying to set the political agenda from opposition.”
Many, however, credit shadow minister Neil O’Brien with bolstering her credibility on the economy. It was O’Brien, for example, who drew up the list of proposed spending cuts in her conference speech. John Glen, the former chief secretary to the Treasury, has also joined her team, while the ex-MP and television presenter Rob Butler helps with presentation.
Badenoch’s performance has helped ease concerns that more Tory MPs could follow Danny Kruger out the door to Reform. “The whips are more relaxed than they have been for a while,” said one, even though grassroots party members continue to flock to Farage.
She faces other challenges, too. While most Tory MPs are sanguine about the slow pace of building up a policy platform, this has brought confusion at times, as shadow ministerial teams fill the vacuum with their own ideas.
Most notable was a draft bill on migration, which could have led to many thousands being retrospectively stripped of their right to live in the UK. It took more than a week before Badenoch eventually disowned it.
Will she survive? The odds – and the polls – remain stacked against her. The May local elections are likely to make her position even less secure. But despite that, some Tory MPs now think Badenoch is safe.
“I don’t see a leadership challenge happening at any point, now. It’s baked in that we’re going to do disastrously in the May election, but the government are likely to do worse,” said one.
Others counsel caution, however. One party official said: “There’s no doubt there has been a bit of a Badenoch bounce, and she is doing well at PMQs, but we need to keep it in proportion – this is one step of many.
“It’s still not clear if we have a strategic plan to take on Reform – beyond maybe with the economy. Kemi might be devising one, but it remains to be seen if she stays long enough to see it come to fruition.”
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, agreed. “Performatively, clearly she is doing better, but although her personal rating seems to have gone up, the party’s rating is still stuck under 20%.
“And, in the end, it’s the latter that matters. If that measurement doesn’t improve, I don’t think they’re going to be any more generous towards her because she occasionally wins PMQs.
“It’s very difficult for a party that was in power for as long as the Tories were – and who crashed the economy and starved public services – to overturn people’s negative impressions in just one parliamentary term.”
