UK GDP report to show if economy returned to growth in November – business live

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Introduction: UK GDP report for November coming up!

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

City investors may be warbling Taylor Swift’s lyric, “Gray November, I’ve been down since July,” this morning, as they learn how the UK economy performed in the 11th month of 2025.

November’s GDP report, due at 7am UK time, will show whether the UK has shaken off its recent malaise.

Economists are hopeful that Britain returned to growth in November, with expectations that GDP rose by 0.1% in the month.

Although that would be modest growth, it would pull the UK out of a stagnant period in which the economy shrank by 0.1% in July, September and October, and was flat in August (although these figures could be revised).

A chart showing UK GDP

Much of the month was dominated by speculation about the budget, which arrived on 26 November; activity in the car industry should have picked up after the cyber attack at JLR ended.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, sets the scene…

After a disappointing start to the fourth quarter, we expect some rebound in November. Some catch-up in activity, we think, is likely.

Activity trackers improved in November, as Budget uncertainty diminished. We will also be looking for any (upward) revisions to either the September or October GDP prints.

The agenda

7am GMT: UK GDP report for November
7am GMT: UK trade report for November
9am GMT: German full year GDP report
1.30pm GMT: US initial jobless claims report

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Housing market may be turning a corner as confidence grows, surveyors say

While we wait for the UK GDP data to land at 7am, there are signs of improvement in the housing market.

A poll of UK surveyors has found that confidence is returning to the market, with expectations for sales and prices turning higher in December.

The latest RICS UK Residential Market Survey found that sales expectations over the next three months had hit the highest level since October 2024.

Looking further ahead, a net balance of +34% of respondents expected sales volumes to rise over the next year – more than double the level seen in November.

Surveyors point to easing interest rate expectations and the clearing of Budget-related uncertainty as key drivers behind the turnaround in mood.

However, RICS’s measure of buyer demand and agreed sales remained in negative territory in December.

RICS’s head of market research & analysis, Tarrant Parsons, says:

“The UK residential market remains in a prolonged soft patch, with December’s survey recording a sixth consecutive month of negative momentum in buyer enquiries. That said, there are tentative signs of a shift in sentiment beneath the surface.

“Near-term sales expectations have strengthened, and the twelve-month outlook has edged into more positive territory. The key test for 2026 will be whether borrowing costs ease on a sustained basis. If so, this could provide the catalyst needed to drive a recovery in buyer demand.”

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, says:

This morning, we receive the latest GDP figures from here in the UK, with the economy set to have grown just 0.1% MoM in November, largely resulting from the continued resumption of JLR production as the recovery from last year’s cyber attack continues.

Such an anaemic pace of growth, though, is hardly a ringing endorsement of the UK’s economic prospects, not least considering that risks to the outlook remain tilted firmly to the downside, and that the fiscal ‘doom loop’ seems set to continue, with the government’s latest U-turns eroding as much as two-thirds of the headroom that Chancellor Reeves left herself at the November Budget.