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Labour has overtaken Reform UK in a voter intention poll for the first time in more than a year as Andy Burnham benefits from the momentum built in his first week as prime minister.
Reform and its leader, Nigel Farage, have had weeks of negative headlines concerning undeclared gifts and donations, an adviser who is a convicted fraudster and a byelection that has descended into farce.
The weekly tracker of voting intention by the nonprofit agency More in Common shows Labour up four points to 28% while Reform and the Greens have dropped two and three points respectively to 24% and 8%. The Tories are unchanged at 22% while the Liberal Democrats are up one point to 12%.
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Luke Tryl, the UK director at More in Common, said: “It’s only been a week since he entered office, but it’s clear that momentum is on the prime minister’s side. After a jam-packed week of high-profile policy announcements and media appearances, the Labour party has surged in our weekly poll.
“With all the caveats that it’s just one poll, Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds their highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024. And with both Reform and the Green party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, it seems that this early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters Labour has lost on both the left and right.”
In response, Burnham said he would not get “carried away” but was pleased to have “connected with people”. He said he would address “big issues” this week, including youth unemployment, social care and housing.
Meanwhile, the pollster Michael Ashcroft has revealed that focus groups in Clacton, where Farage is campaigning for a seat in the House of Commons in a byelection triggered by his own resignation, have highlighted growing anger at the Reform UK leader.
Constituents have accused Farage of using them as “pawns in his little game” to rebuild his personal reputation, expressing frustration at the financial cost imposed on a low-income area purely to satisfy his desire to prove his popularity, Lord Ashcroft writes on his website.
Voters also voiced criticism over Farage’s disconnect from everyday residents, pointing to his wealth and failure to hold regular constituency surgeries, Ashcroft said. Discontent was further compounded by the absence of major party candidates from the byelection, leaving residents feeling abandoned by the political establishment and forced to choose between Farage or satirical options.
Burnham, who returned to the House of Commons on 18 June after winning a byelection in Makerfield and was appointed prime minister a week ago, has dominated UK media in the last week with a flurry of policy announcements.
While not without criticism, the policies put forward in the prime minister’s first week – a tax cut on energy bills, a cap on bus fares and a cut to business rates for pubs and clubs – have broadly landed well.
Meanwhile, Farage has been unable to shake off sleaze allegations that have been dogging him since the Guardian revealed in April that he was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing he would stand in the 2024 general election.
The parliamentary standards watchdog launched an investigation in May into whether the £5m fell within rules requiring MPs to declare any potentially relevant gifts or donations received in the 12 months before entering parliament. Farage denies any breach of parliamentary rules.
In the meantime, it emerged that George Cottrell, a longtime aide to Farage and a convicted fraudster, provided funding for Farage’s operation, including for staffing, security and housing.
Payments to Reform revealed by the Guardian are now being investigated by the Metropolitan police. The inquiry is scrutinising payments made to the party via a company controlled by its deputy leader, Richard Tice.
Scotland Yard is looking at two donations of £250,000 made to the party by Britain Means Business in the weeks before the 2024 general election.
Reform UK has denied any wrongdoing in relation to the allegations.
