Wales v New Zealand: Autumn Nations Series rugby union – live

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The numbers are not on Wales’ side.

- Wales have won only two of their last 21Tests

- New Zealand have scored 40 or more points in four of their last five games against Wales.

- The first half has been the highest scoring period in seven of Wales’ matches in 2025

- Kiwi winger Will Jordan has scored 43 tries in 52 Tests. I expect he’ll add at least one or two more today.

New Zealand team news

There are a dozen changes to the side that lost to England last week.

Damien McKenzie starts at fly-half and Ruben Love’s selection at full-back means Will Jordan switches to the right wing.

World Rugby’s Breakthrough Player of the Year nominee Fabian Holland starts in the second row.

New Zealand: Love; Jordan, R Ioane, Lienert-Brown, Clarke; McKenzie, Ratima; T Williams, Taukei’aho, Tosi, S Barrett (capt), Holland, Parker, Kirifi, Sititi.

Replacements: Bell, Newell, Bower, Lord, Lio-Willie, Christie, Fainga’anuku, Reece.

Wales team news

Welsh rugby is built on its connection with local communities and today we get a brilliant example of that.

Harri Deaves began his working life as a roofer but on Saturday the Ospreys flanker will run out in the scarlet shirt of Wales against the All Blacks to complete “an amazing story” from club rugby player to international.

The 24-year-old coaches in his hometown of Pontyclun and is the captain of the club’s darts second team.

He starts. in a back row that has a lot of mobility alongside 23-year-old Alex Mann and Taine Plumtree at No. 8.

Jarrod Evans, the hero from last week, starts on the bench again as Dan Edwards keeps his spot at fly-half.

There are five English-based players in the starting XV alongside Montpellier’s Adam Beard.

Wales: B Murray (Scarlets); L Rees-Zammit (Bristol), M Llewellyn (Gloucester), J Hawkins (Scarlets), T Rogers (Scarlets); D Edwards (Ospreys), T Williams (Gloucester); R Carre (Saracens), D Lake (Ospreys, capt), K Assiratti (Cardiff), D Jenkins (Exeter), A Beard (Montpellier), A Mann (Cardiff), H Deaves (Ospreys), T Plumtree (Scarlets).

Replacements: B Coghlan (Dragons), Gareth Thomas (Ospreys), A Griffin (Bath), F Thomas (Gloucester), M Morse (Ospreys), K Hardy (Ospreys), J Evans (Harlequins), N Tompkins (Saracens).

Preamble

It wasn’t too long ago that this match would be the coming together of the best teams in their respective hemispheres.

In 2012 Wales won a grand slam in the Six Nations a few months before New Zealand claimed a clean sweep in the Rugby Championship. Generational players. Superstar coaches. An indomitable belief either side of the equator that men in red and men in black were almost guaranteed success.

Now the opposite is true. Wales needed a last-gasp penalty to beat Japan last week to hand Steve Tandy his first victory as head coach. Meanwhile, Scott Roberston is fighting for survival after his All Blacks were hammered by England’s bench at Twickenham.

Two great empires trying to restore their former glories but that’s where the comparisons end. Because for all the angst coming from New Zealand, they are nowhere near as low as the Welsh at present. The All Blacks still possess world class talent and a robust pipeline. Wales on the other hand have been facing an existential crisis for what feels like five years at least.

Anything other than a Kiwi romp in Cardiff would constitute a mighty upset. But that means that Wales have a free swing of sorts. Little expectation should equate to little pressure which cannot be said for the All Blacks. They simply have to fire this afternoon. Even a positive result won’t blow away the storm clouds. They have to set the Principality on fire.

Kick-off at 3.10pm GMT.

Teams and other bits to follow.