.png)
2 hours ago
1
With Keir Starmer’s poll ratings getting worse and the Labour party alarmed by the prospect of wipeout at next May’s local elections, there is much speculation at Westminster about whether he can last the course.
The prime minister is bullish about the prospect of standing aside for another candidate, saying he has defied his detractors before and would do so again. But with many on his own side fearing that he doesn’t have what it takes to turn things around, he may not have the chance.
The jostling among those who may wish to replace him – or whose allies believe they’d do a better job – continues…
Angela Rayner
Timing is everything in politics. When Downing Street unleashed an extraordinary bout of leadership speculation amid fears Starmer was vulnerable to a challenge after the budget, it was not Rayner they were worried about.
Although his former deputy remains popular among Labour MPs, the unions and the membership, it was widely felt that she needed more time for the scandal around her unpaid stamp duty bill to fall away. With the aftermath of the May elections now looking like Starmer’s moment of greatest peril, however, Rayner has time to rebuild. By then, she could even be back in cabinet, with the prime minister saying at the weekend he was “really sad that we lost her”.
Since she left office Rayner has been mostly sticking to policy interventions, but allies have been on manoeuvres behind the scenes and all the indications are that she sees her future role as more than just kingmaker. While allies deny Rayner has agreed – or would agree – any sort of pact with Wes Streeting, sources have suggested that if she did win the Labour crown, she might have to appoint a chancellor on the right of the party to assuage the markets.
Wes Streeting
It is no surprise that figures close to the prime minister had the health secretary in their sights when they warned last month that a leadership challenge would be a huge error. Streeting has made little secret of his ambitions and – aware that his best chance might be when Rayner was out of the running – his allies accept that he had stepped up a gear, courting MPs and thinking about strategy. “It’s planning, though, not plotting,” one insisted, stressing that he had no desire to actually wield the metaphorical knife.
Often dismissed as being too right wing to get past Labour members, Streeting has in recent months defied expectations on issues including Gaza and welfare cuts – and has implicitly criticised the leadership on several issues. The shift appears to have been noticed by the membership, with recent polls giving him a cabinet approval rating second only to Ed Miliband. Party members told YouGov the ability to beat Nigel Farage was a more important quality than sharing their values.
Shabana Mahmood
When Starmer reshuffled his cabinet back in September, moving Shabana Mahmood to the Home Office was seen by some as a masterstroke. With immigration so high up the political agenda, appointing a minister on the right of the party with a reputation for taking on challenging issues was welcomed even by the right wing press.
Mahmood’s allies suggest she is closer to the centre of political gravity in the UK than just about anybody else in the cabinet – leaning to the left on economic issues and the right on social ones. She earned her reputation as a sharp political operator in opposition as Labour’s national campaign coordinator who, along with Morgan McSweeney, laid the groundwork for the subsequent election victory.
But while she is supported by a strong team, and has some starry-eyed fans on the Labour backbenches, others are more sceptical. Her hardline reforms to the asylum and returns system saw her support plummet among party members. And while allies believe she could make her case for the leadership in any contest, friends say that Mahmood herself remained unconvinced the country was ready to be led by a Muslim woman, even if the party was.
Ed Miliband
Even though it’s more than a decade since he led Labour to general election defeat, Milifandom is still very much a thing, with Ed Miliband regularly topping cabinet approval ratings – often way ahead of his colleagues. At the party’s annual conference in Liverpool, he was the darling of the fringe circuit.
The energy secretary is one of the few ministers to be evangelical about his brief – leading the green energy transition and the fight against climate change. It means he has picked up enemies on the right along the way, but has shown his ability to bend the machinery of government to his will. Miliband even refused the prime minister’s attempts to move him in the reshuffle.
Some of the former Labour leader’s allies say that he wouldn’t want the job again – he just thinks he could do a better job than Starmer. Others say he is frustrated not to get more of a hearing inside No 10 – especially as he has direct experience of leadership to share. They caution he would be reluctant to enter the fray when it cost him so much personally last time. He’s more likely to be kingmaker, than the next king.
Best of the rest
The defence secretary, John Healey, is talked about as a “safe pair of hands”, a solid performer and is popular across the Labour party, but is unlikely to excite the masses. Andy Burnham, however, regularly tops political popularity ratings with the public. But while the Greater Manchester mayor’s ambition is clear – his route back to Westminster looks difficult.
Other Labour figures who could throw their hats in the ring in the event of a vacancy include Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, Lucy Powell, the deputy leader, Darren Jones, the prime minister’s chief secretary, armed forces minister Al Carns, and leftwinger Richard Burgon.
