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There was a time when the European Cup had an overwhelmingly Irish flavour. The organisers’ headquarters were in Dublin and between 2006 and 2012 either Munster or Leinster lifted the trophy five times in seven seasons. Everyone else was forced to scrabble around for the last few uneaten Tayto crisps in the bag.
And now? The tournament, officially known these days as the Investec Champions Cup, has tilted so far towards France you can practically smell the garlic. Admittedly its HQ is now in Switzerland for tax reasons but, financially and on the field, the balance of power lies squarely with les grands chefs of the Top 14. Since 2021, there have been five successive French winners and on three occasions in that time, the Challenge Cup has also disappeared across the Channel.
With next May’s final scheduled for Bilbao in the Basque Country, barely 120km across the French border, this year’s question is obvious: can anyone stop the seemingly inevitable? Even before a ball is kicked – or an eye is gouged – iit feels like something special will be needed to prevent another Gallic procession.
Because not only are five of the Top 14’s current top six revving up on the grid but many of their so-called rivals are short of momentum. Even Leinster sit only sixth in the URC table while Saracens, Sale Sharks, Harlequins and Gloucester are all in the bottom half of the Prem. Scarlets are stone cold last in the URC while the Sharks and the Bulls cannot endlessly flog all their high-class Springboks.
Which, realistically, leaves just four or five non-French sides in with a puncher’s chance of featuring in the last eight, let alone in the semi-final and final. The DHL Stormers from South Africa are top of the URC while Leinster, Munster, Bath and Saracens just about possess enough squad depth to compete as well.
Even then much rests on their ability to thrive away from home in some seriously tough back yards. Take Bath, for example. The English champions simply must beat Munster at home on Saturday night, probably with a bonus point, to give themselves some insurance ahead of their visits to Toulon and Castres either side of Christmas. Lose in Toulon, in particular, and their hopes of topping Pool 2 will be sunk to the Mediterranean sea bed.
The opening rounds matter because the format of the competition remains weighted in favour of those who start fast. Earn yourself a top four seeding and, as Bordeaux and Northampton showed last season, it makes the ride much more manageable. Top two and, if you keep winning, you have the luxury of home country advantage until the semi-finals.
So anyone planning to stop the Bordeauxs and Toulouses of this world from booking into Bilbao needs to start motoring early. Which means the Stormers cannot afford to slip up on the opening weekend in Bayonne while the Saints, last year’s finalists, have scant margin for error away to Pau and at home to the Bulls respectively in their first two games.
Pau, along with Toulon, will be instructive to watch given they have already beaten Toulouse at home and Bordeaux away in the Top 14 this season. Joe Simmonds – a European champion with Exeter five years ago – has rebooted his career in the south-west of France and his side play a sweeping brand of rugby that can be hard to contain.
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The same applies to the Saints, but it will require all of Henry Pollock’s joie de vivre for his side to dominate a pool also containing Bordeaux, Bristol and the Scarlets. Unless, of course, the Bulls turn up at Franklin’s Gardens with a below-strength lineup – as has happened in the past – and again undermine the thesis that South African sides would add to the competition.
This feels like a significant campaign for Bristol, too, as they hope to show they have the substance at this level to match their fast-moving style. They will be hosting Pau and Bordeaux and travelling to Llanelli and Pretoria and might just make the last 16 if they can keep enough of their key starters fit.
Saracens? Durban and Glasgow will pose contrastingly awkward challenges while the bookmakers’ deserved tournament favourites, Toulouse, are also due to visit north London. Antoine Dupont against Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Ben Earl and co against half the French pack? That Sunday fixture in round three in January could be the 80 minutes that shows just how narrow – or wide – the gap now is between England’s biggest dogs and France’s wealthier aristocrats.
Here is hoping there is a twist in the tale at some stage because, otherwise, a lot of familiar faces will be swigging podium champagne and a last eight comprising of Bordeaux, Leinster, Toulouse, Toulon, Stormers, Pau, Munster and Bath will be no real surprise. Leinster, remarkably, won their most recent gold star in Bilbao more than seven and a half years ago. Repeating the trick grows steadily harder.
